Opinion: Somalia’s Security Dilemmas: From Traditional Threats to Emerging Threats

“Somalia’s security future depends not on military strength alone, but on transforming national resources, institutions, and partnerships into coordinated strategic power.” Abdalla Yahya Snai

Introduction#

The concept of national security is undergoing profound transformation amid rapid changes in the international system. A state’s ability to safeguard its sovereignty and maintain stability is no longer determined by military capabilities alone. Instead, it increasingly depends on the effective integration of political, economic, diplomatic, technological, social, and environmental capabilities.

Somalia faces a complex security environment in which traditional threats—including clan-based conflicts arising from competition over land, water, and grazing resources; struggles for political power and influence; and disputes between the Federal Government and Federal Member States over constitutional authority and resource distribution—interact with emerging threats that transcend geographical boundaries and conventional security frameworks.

These emerging challenges include terrorism, transnational organized crime, cyber and information threats, climate change, maritime insecurity, and regional and international geopolitical competition.

This complexity calls for a comprehensive strategic approach that addresses the underlying causes of insecurity while integrating the various instruments of national power to protect sovereignty, strengthen institutional resilience, and achieve sustainable security.

Somalia’s security challenges stem not only from traditional and emerging threats but also from the state’s limited capacity to coordinate national resources within a coherent strategic vision. Understanding these interconnected challenges is essential to developing a comprehensive national security strategy.

Transformations in the Concept of National Security#

The traditional concept of national security primarily focused on protecting the state against external military aggression, safeguarding territorial integrity, and preserving political sovereignty. However, transformations in the international system have demonstrated that military capabilities alone cannot guarantee lasting security.

Economic vulnerability, political fragmentation, social divisions, climate change, public-health emergencies, cyber threats, and transnational crime can also undermine state stability. National security must therefore be understood as a comprehensive, multidimensional concept that integrates defence with political, economic, societal, technological, and environmental resilience.

Barry Buzan’s People, States and Fear provides an important theoretical foundation for this broader understanding by examining security across military, political, economic, societal, and environmental sectors.

The Copenhagen School further develops this perspective by emphasizing that security threats extend beyond conventional military challenges and may affect the stability of state institutions and society. Similarly, the human security approach highlights the protection of individuals and communities from violence, deprivation, disease, and environmental hazards.

Applied to Somalia, these perspectives demonstrate how clan conflicts, institutional weaknesses, food insecurity, displacement, and climate-related disasters can interact, reinforcing vulnerabilities that cannot be addressed through military operations alone.

This multidimensional understanding also requires connecting national security with regional security. The regional security complex perspective, associated with Barry Buzan and Ole Wæver, emphasizes the interdependence of neighbouring states whose security is affected by cross-border threats and instability.

In Somalia’s case, the activities of Al-Shabaab extend beyond national borders, threatening regional stability and underscoring the interconnected security interests of Somalia and its neighbours.

Developments across the Horn of Africa, the Red Sea, and the Gulf of Aden also affect maritime security, trade, and geopolitical competition. Addressing these challenges requires coordinated intelligence-sharing, joint security efforts, and sustained regional cooperation, supported by effective national institutions and clearly defined strategic interests.

At the strategic level, comprehensive security depends on the state’s ability to mobilize and coordinate its national capabilities in pursuit of long-term interests. Geographical location and natural resources provide strategic potential, but they do not automatically generate national power.

Somalia must therefore strengthen its institutions, defence capabilities, economic resilience, technological capacity, and diplomatic coordination.

Traditional Threats and the Persistence of Somalia’s Security Dilemma#

Somalia’s security dilemma is rooted in longstanding conflicts and institutional weaknesses that continue to undermine national stability. These include clan-based revenge killings, disputes over land, water, and grazing resources, struggles for political power, and tensions between the Federal Government and Federal Member States over constitutional authority, resource distribution, and the division of responsibilities.

Clan conflicts remain a major source of insecurity, particularly when unresolved grievances trigger cycles of revenge or competition over scarce natural resources. Drought, weak local governance, and limited access to justice can intensify these disputes.

Addressing them requires effective local administration, impartial justice, reconciliation, and fair mechanisms for managing land and water resources.

Political tensions between federal and state institutions also weaken security coordination and public trust. Prolonged disagreements over constitutional powers, national resources, and political responsibilities can obstruct policymaking and create opportunities for armed groups to exploit institutional divisions.

Inclusive dialogue, clearer constitutional arrangements, and transparent resource-sharing mechanisms are therefore essential to strengthening federal cooperation.

Terrorism, particularly the threat posed by Al-Shabaab, remains a persistent national security challenge. Military and intelligence operations are necessary, but they cannot ensure lasting stability without effective governance, essential services, accessible justice, and public confidence in state institutions.

Maritime insecurity and piracy likewise demonstrate the overlap between traditional and emerging threats. Although piracy has fluctuated over time, protecting Somalia’s maritime sovereignty and resources requires stronger coastguard capabilities, maritime surveillance, secure ports, and effective law enforcement.

Ultimately, Somalia cannot overcome these persistent threats through military operations alone. International security assistance remains important, but it should strengthen national capabilities rather than permanently substitute for state responsibility.

Emerging Threats and the Requirements of Comprehensive National Power#