By Kepher Otieno - Senior journalist based in Kenya and a regular advocate for democracy and good governance.
"A country that waits for empty silos before discovering that farmers have harvested too little has already lost the battle." - Kepher Otieno
Kenya is once again turning to the outside world to feed itself. The Government plans to facilitate the importation of up to 25 million 90-kilogram bags of maize to bridge an anticipated supply deficit.
That is about 2.25 million tonnes of grain. It is a sobering admission for a country whose economy and livelihoods remain deeply tied to agriculture.
The immediate problem is straightforward. Kenya produces too little maize for its needs. The country consumes roughly 75 million 90kg bags annually. Yet poor rainfall in key grain-producing areas has sharply reduced the expected harvest. The Government now estimates a possible shortfall of nearly 25 million bags.
But the bigger question is not why Kenya is importing maize. It is why a country with enormous agricultural potential keeps finding itself in this position.
The answer is not one thing. It is a cocktail of climate shocks, rain-fed agriculture, declining soil fertility, expensive farm inputs, inadequate irrigation, weak extension services and poor farm-level planning.
My visit to the National Cereals and Produce Board depot in Awendo on Monday offered a telling snapshot of what is happening on the ground. Hundreds of farmers had lined up, waiting to access subsidised fertiliser.
There was palpable enthusiasm. Many were relieved by President William Ruto's announcement that from September, the price of a 50-kilogramme bag will fall from KSh 2,500 to KSh 2,000.
The Government has also announced a 50 per cent subsidy on certified maize seed.
For farmers who have endured poor harvests, this is welcome news.
Many of those I encountered blamed last season's disappointing yields on depleted soils and inadequate nutrients. Their logic is understandable. A crop cannot perform miracles on exhausted soil.
And now there is a new determination to fertilise. Farmers are hoping that cheaper inputs will translate into bigger harvests.
Perhaps they will.
But perhaps they will not.
That is the uncomfortable question Kenya must confront.
Is the problem simply that farmers lack fertiliser, or that they are not always getting the right fertiliser, in the right quantity, at the right time and for the right soil?
This is where agricultural extension becomes critical.
A cheaper bag of fertiliser is not a farming strategy by itself. Farmers need to know what their soils require. They need advice on application rates. They need to understand when fertiliser should be applied and how it should be combined with certified seed, appropriate spacing, weed control and moisture conservation.
Otherwise, Kenya risks subsidising inputs without maximising their productivity.
Climate change is now impossible to ignore. Rainfall is becoming less predictable. Long rains can arrive late, fail altogether or become excessively intense over a short period. Farmers who plant according to the traditional calendar can therefore find themselves planting into dry soils or having crops mature when moisture has disappeared.
But blaming climate change alone would be an easy escape.
Kenya's vulnerability is partly self-inflicted.
For decades, the country has relied overwhelmingly on rain-fed agriculture. When the rains fail, production collapses. When they come heavily, farmers suffer floods, erosion and crop damage. That is not a resilient food system. It is a national gamble with the weather.
There is also the question of soil fertility.
Soil degradation quietly undermines productivity. Yet soil testing remains far from routine among smallholder farmers. Kenya cannot sustainably pursue a one-size-fits-all fertiliser policy when soils differ enormously from one locality to another.
A farmer in Awendo may not require exactly the same nutrient mix as one in Trans Nzoia, Uasin Gishu or Bomet.
This is why soil mapping should move from technical reports into practical farming.
Farmers should be able to walk into an extension office, provide their location and obtain clear advice on the condition of their soil and the appropriate nutrient combination for their crop.
The timing of planting is equally critical.
A farmer who plants too early risks losing seed before adequate moisture arrives. Plant too late and the crop may encounter drought during flowering and grain filling. Yet many farmers still make planting decisions largely from experience rather than reliable, hyper-local weather and agronomic information.
This is where extension officers must do much more.
Are they reaching farmers early enough?
Are they explaining the difference between basal and top-dressing fertiliser?
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Are they teaching farmers how much fertiliser is appropriate?
Are they advising on soil testing?
Are they helping farmers select certified seed suited to their ecological zones?
Are they translating climate forecasts into simple farming decisions?
These are not academic questions. They could determine whether the next harvest saves Kenya billions or sends the country back to the import market.
The Government deserves credit for tackling the cost of inputs. The latest intervention is a significant shift towards subsidising production.
The Agriculture Ministry says the fertiliser programme has already distributed about 33.55 million 50kg bags to roughly 1.98 million farmers, with government support estimated at KSh 78.79 billion. It says maize production rose from 34.3 million 90kg bags in 2022 to 73 million bags in 2025.
But subsidies must now be matched with knowledge.
The Government can make fertiliser cheaper. It cannot make every farmer an agronomist.
That is the job of an effective extension system.
Kenya also needs irrigation, climate-smart agriculture, better seeds, stronger agricultural research, accurate crop forecasting and strategic grain reserves. Satellite technology, weather stations and mobile platforms can help farmers know when to plant, what to plant and how to manage their crops.
The country must also diversify its food basket. Maize is too important to Kenya's food system. That is precisely why it is dangerous to depend on it so heavily. Sorghum, millet, cassava, potatoes, beans and other climate-resilient crops deserve greater investment.
Rice presents another uncomfortable lesson. Kenya's consumption has expanded faster than domestic production, leaving the country heavily dependent on imports. The growing grain import bill therefore reflects more than one bad season. It reveals a structural mismatch between what Kenyans consume and what Kenyan farms produce.
The proposed maize import alone could have a commodity value running into tens of billions of shillings.
At an illustrative $300–$400 per tonne for 2.25 million tonnes, the bill would be roughly KSh 87 billion to KSh 117 billion, before downstream costs.
Imports are necessary in the short term. If domestic stocks cannot meet demand, importing grain is preferable to allowing hunger and prices to spiral.
But imports cannot become Kenya's agricultural policy.
The Awendo farmers are ready. They are already queuing for inputs. They want to plant. They want better harvests. They want to feed their families and sell the surplus.
The Government has lowered the price of the key inputs. That is an important first step.
Now the extension officers must meet the farmers halfway.
The next campaign should not merely be about distributing fertiliser. It should be about teaching farmers how to turn every kilogramme of fertiliser into maximum yield.
Because the real test of the KSh 2,000 bag will not be how many bags are sold.
It will be how many extra bags of maize are harvested.
Kenya cannot control the climate. But it can control how vulnerable its farmers are to it.
The maize imports should therefore be more than a rescue operation. They should be a warning.
A country that waits for empty silos before discovering that farmers have harvested too little has already lost the battle.
The real food-security crisis is not simply that Kenya has had a poor harvest. It is that after decades of experience, the country still has not built an agricultural system capable of absorbing a poor season without reaching for the import button.
And the farmers waiting patiently at Awendo NCPB are sending Kenya a powerful message: give us affordable inputs, but also give us the knowledge to use them well.
The writer is a senior journalist based in Kenya, consulting editor and a regular advocate for democracy and good governance in Africa. kepher43@gmail.com
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The views expressed in this article are those of the writer and do not necessarily reflect the views of Dawan Africa.