OPINION:Somalia Must Act Now as “Deyr” Flood Risks Rise

 “There is still time. Ministries, humanitarians and communities should act now, together, and treat this warning as the call to action it is.”- Abukar Mohamed Noor

The rains have not fully started, yet Somalia is already counting losses. Floods in Buuhoodle, in Togdheer region, killed two people, injured 25 and displaced more than 250 families. In Baraag Abdille, in Galgaduud, floods killed about 6,000 livestock and affected some 500 pastoralist families. In mid-September, heavy downpours flooded Mogadishu and brought public transport to a standstill.

These are not isolated events. They are early signs of what forecasters have been warning about for months.

A strong signal from the climate system#

On 3 September 2026, the World Meteorological Organization reported that El Niño was firmly established and expected to strengthen, potentially becoming a very strong event later this year.

For Somalia, the October–December Deyr season is the critical window. The IGAD Climate Prediction and Applications Centre forecasts about a 90 per cent probability of enhanced rainfall across central and southern Somalia. FAO has described this as an exceptionally strong wet signal. In parts of the south and centre, there is more than a 90 per cent probability of seasonal rainfall exceeding 300 mm, with an earlier-than-average start.

A positive Indian Ocean Dipole would add to the risk. The combination is associated with enhanced rainfall over the Horn of Africa.

Why this season is especially dangerous#

History offers a warning. The 1997 floods caused more than 2,300 deaths. In 2023, Deyr floods displaced up to two million people and affected 2.48 million. FAO cautions that these years are analogues, not predictions. They show, however, the scale of impact when strong El Niño conditions coincide with an unusually wet Deyr season.

What makes 2026 different is the starting point. Communities enter this season weakened. Gu rains were below average, while the 2025 Deyr and early 2026 drought strained water systems, livestock and household resilience.

On 23 September, the Federal Government and the United Nations warned that millions of people were already facing high levels of hunger. They said agropastoral and riverine communities would be hit hardest, as crops and livestock are destroyed, markets are cut off and displacement increases.

FEWS NET says the main driver of acute food insecurity is shifting from drought to flooding. If flooding is extreme and widespread, it warns, there is a credible risk of Famine (IPC Phase 5) in parts of the south. Child rights agencies also warn that hundreds of thousands of children could be displaced before the end of the year.

Where the risk is highest#

●      Jubba and Shabelle river corridors: UNDRR’s El Niño Climate Impact Outlook for Somalia highlights a credible risk of severe riverine flooding if El Niño strengthens alongside a positive Indian Ocean Dipole. Heavy rain in the upper catchments of Ethiopia could push both rivers to dangerous levels.

●      Flash-flood areas: Authorities expect flash floods in central Somalia, Puntland and urban areas such as Mogadishu.

●      Districts flagged for attention: Bay, Lower Shabelle and Hiiraan have been identified in the Deyr outlook.

●      Displacement settings: Households already displaced and living in weak shelters with poor drainage have the least capacity to absorb another shock.

The peace and development dimension#

Flood response is often discussed as a humanitarian issue. It is also a development and peace issue. When farms and grazing land are destroyed and livelihoods and markets collapse, pressure on land, water and aid can rise. Displaced families may move into already crowded areas.

Without fair and transparent targeting of assistance, these pressures can deepen local grievances and tensions between communities. Inclusive, locally led and conflict-sensitive preparedness is therefore part of protecting stability. This is a risk assessment, not a prediction, and planning must look beyond the flood itself to recovery.

What has been done, and what is missing#

There is progress to recognise. In September 2026, the government approved a National El Niño Preparedness Plan, bringing federal institutions, Federal Member States and local authorities under one framework. SoDMA has urged communities to prepare, and a climate early-warning system and a World Bank-backed disaster preparedness project have been announced.