By Issa Hussein - Reporter
Ethiopia, June 28, 2026 — Climate experts have warned that much of the Greater Horn of Africa is likely to experience below-normal rainfall during the June to September (JJAS) 2026 season, raising concerns over agriculture, water resources, food security, and livelihoods across the region.
The seasonal outlook was released during the 73rd Greater Horn of Africa Climate Outlook Forum (GHACOF 73), held in Addis Ababa from May 18 to 19. The forecast was issued by the IGAD Climate Prediction and Applications Centre (ICPAC) in collaboration with National Meteorological and Hydrological Services (NMHSs), the World Meteorological Organization (WMO), and other partners.
According to the forecast, below-normal rainfall is expected across most areas where the June–September period marks the main rainy season, including South Sudan, Uganda, Ethiopia, Djibouti, much of Eritrea, Sudan, and western and coastal Kenya.
The highest probability of reduced rainfall—exceeding 60 percent and reaching as high as 80 percent in northeastern Ethiopia—is forecast for central, northeastern and northwestern Ethiopia, southern Sudan, and northern Uganda.
However, some areas are expected to receive above-normal rainfall, including parts of northern Sudan, southeastern Ethiopia, and southern and northern Somalia. Northern Sudan, southern coastal Somalia, and parts of Kenya are projected to experience near-normal rainfall.
The outlook also points to a likely late onset of the rainy season in parts of South Sudan, Ethiopia, and southern Sudan, while localized areas in north-central Ethiopia and central Sudan may experience normal or earlier-than-normal onset.
In addition to reduced rainfall, the region is expected to experience above-normal temperatures during the season. The highest likelihood of warmer-than-average conditions is forecast for northern Sudan, most parts of South Sudan, and Ethiopia, with very low chances of below-normal temperatures across the Greater Horn of Africa.
Climate experts noted that the projected conditions closely resemble those experienced during the strong El Niño years of 1997 and 2023, when several parts of Ethiopia, South Sudan, Uganda, and western Kenya recorded below-normal rainfall during the same season. While those historical patterns provide useful reference points, ICPAC emphasized that the 2026 seasonal forecast should remain the primary guide for planning and preparedness.
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The anticipated dry conditions could affect rain-fed agriculture, water availability, livestock production, hydropower generation, food security, public health, and may heighten the risk of resource-based conflicts in vulnerable areas.
ICPAC has urged governments, humanitarian agencies, and other stakeholders to use the forecast to support early preparedness measures, risk reduction, and climate-informed planning. The regional climate centre said it will continue issuing updates throughout the season, while national meteorological agencies will provide country-specific forecasts and advisories.
Speaking during the opening of GHACOF 73, IGAD Deputy Executive Secretary Mohamed Abdi Ware underscored the importance of translating climate forecasts into practical action.
“Across the region, we are increasingly shifting the conversation from ‘early warning’ to ‘early warning linked to anticipatory action,’ recognising that climate information must ultimately support action and preparedness to make a difference,” he said.
Ethiopian Meteorological Institute Director General Fetene Teshome called for greater investment in climate services and stronger regional cooperation to improve resilience.
“We must continue to invest in and expand systems capable of generating knowledge-based, user-tailored climate information at both the national and regional levels,” he said.