By Benadeta Mwaura - Reporter
Kenya, August 21, 2026 - Kenyans could face renewed pressure on food prices if poor rainfall in key agricultural regions results in a weaker maize harvest, the Central Bank of Kenya has warned.
The warning comes as farmers in parts of the North Rift and Western Kenya report crop failures linked to inadequate rainfall, raising fresh concerns over the country's food supply and the prices consumers could face in the coming months.
CBK's latest Agriculture Sector Survey shows that expectations for maize production remain subdued, with the balance of opinion on expected maize output standing at only 2%.
The bank linked the weak outlook to depressed rainfall in some of the country's major maize-growing areas. Respondents also expected production of several other crops, including rice, millet, wheat, onions, beans and Irish potatoes, to decline.
The concern over maize is particularly significant because of its central place in Kenyan households.
CBK's January 2026 Agriculture Sector Survey notes that maize and maize-related products account for about 2.6% of the Consumer Price Index basket, covering products such as maize grain, green maize and different types of maize flour.
Kenya produced an average of 41.1 million 50-kilogram bags of maize annually between 2020 and 2024, according to the same CBK report.
A weaker harvest could therefore put pressure on grain supplies and eventually feed through to the price of maize flour and other maize-based foods.
Recent developments in Kenya's grain-growing regions have already raised concerns over the condition of maize crops. Reports from the country's maize basket indicate that prolonged dry conditions have left some fields struggling, with fears that reduced yields could eventually push up the price of maize flour.
CBK's findings provide a more complicated picture than a blanket food-price increase.
Respondents expected prices of potatoes, traditional vegetables, peas, spinach and fresh unpacketed milk to rise over the coming month.
At the same time, they expected prices of tomatoes, onions, carrots, maize grain and maize flour to decline.
That means the bank's warning is about emerging supply risks, rather than a forecast that all food prices will immediately rise.
CBK described the July survey as pointing to a modest increase in near-term inflation expectations, largely because of emerging supply-side pressures.
Weather has emerged as the dominant factor behind food-price expectations.
About 94% of respondents identified rainfall and other weather patterns as factors affecting food prices, followed by transport costs at 93%.
Other factors included labour costs, cited by 71 per cent of respondents, and input costs at 62%.
This creates a difficult situation for farmers.
Poor rains can reduce yields, while the cost of transporting whatever produce reaches the market can simultaneously push up the final price paid by consumers.
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The latest survey also shows that concerns about future inflation are becoming more widespread.
The proportion of respondents expecting inflation to increase over the next month rose to 56.9%, from 47.9% in June.
For the next three months, 57.5% expected inflation to rise, compared with 48.5% in the previous survey.
This comes as households are already dealing with pressure from other components of the cost of living.
CBK respondents also reported the impact of the US-Israel-Iran conflict on retail prices, with 72% saying they had observed an effect, mainly through higher oil prices and global supply-chain disruptions.
The survey suggests that the answer may not simply be importing food once shortages emerge.
Farmers cited irrigation pumps, generators and piping systems, increased agricultural subsidies, better feeder roads, stronger extension services and lower fuel costs among the interventions needed to protect production.
That is particularly important for maize because the consequences of a poor harvest extend beyond farmers.
Lower production can mean reduced household food stocks, higher demand for imported grain and additional pressure on millers and consumers.
Kenya has already been moving towards increased maize imports to bridge production gaps, making the performance of the current crop increasingly important for the country's food-security position.
For now, CBK's survey does not show a uniform increase in food prices. Some commodities are actually expected to become cheaper.
The bigger concern is what happens if the poor rainfall translates into significantly lower production.
A weaker harvest could tighten supplies later in the year, particularly for maize and other staples, at a time when households are already sensitive to changes in food prices.
That makes rainfall one of the most important variables to watch in Kenya's inflation outlook.
The immediate question is therefore not simply whether food prices are rising today, but whether poor rains are setting the stage for a more expensive food basket in the months ahead.