Kenya, 29 December 2025 - Kenya’s political chessboard is shifting, and nowhere is the recalibration more visible than inside the Orange Democratic Movement (ODM), where loyalty to President William Ruto is colliding with internal resistance, ambition and raw power politics.
At the centre of it all is ODM leader Dr Oburu Oginga Odinga, who has thrown down the gauntlet: ODM will back Ruto in the build-up to the 2027 elections but only if the party walks away with a bigger slice of government.
Speaking in Nyanza, Oburu left little room for ambiguity. “We will support President William Ruto beyond 2027, but ODM must have a bigger stake in the next government,” he said, framing the alliance not as political surrender, but as strategic bargaining.
For Oburu, proximity to power is not betrayal, it is survival.
His remarks come at a time when President Ruto is aggressively courting the Nyanza vote, a region long associated with opposition politics.
The outreach has rattled ODM’s internal equilibrium, exposing sharp ideological and generational fault lines within the party.
Oburu’s position is rooted in pragmatism.
He argues that ODM’s participation in the current broad-based government—an arrangement midwifed by the late former Prime Minister Raila Odinga—has already begun to yield dividends, particularly in development.
“We are not ready to gamble with the lives of Kenyans,” Oburu said, insisting that remaining in government is the only way to protect ODM strongholds from marginalisation.
He went further, praising Ruto for what he described as a deliberate effort to integrate Nyanza into the national development matrix.
Roads, markets, housing projects and social programmes, Oburu argued, are evidence that the region is finally “feeling government.”
In his calculus, walking away in 2027 would amount to political self-sabotage.
But Oburu’s hardline stance has intensified internal feuds within ODM.
ODM Secretary-General Edwin Sifuna has emerged as the most vocal critic of deepening ties with Ruto, warning that ODM risks losing its soul by drifting too close to a president it once fiercely opposed. Sifuna’s camp argues that ODM’s identity as a reformist, opposition-rooted movement is being diluted in exchange for short-term political comfort.
Yet Oburu appears unmoved by the dissent. He has asserted his authority as party leader, signalling that decisions on coalitions and future alignments will be driven from the top.
His message to skeptics is blunt: ODM must be part of the next regime, and those who disagree can “take it to the bank.”
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Notably, Oburu is not alone. ODM Director of Elections Junet Mohamed and National Chairperson Gladys Wanga have publicly reassured President Ruto of their loyalty.
Their stance suggests that a powerful faction within ODM sees alignment with Ruto not as capitulation, but as leverage—an opportunity to negotiate influence, cabinet slots and development resources ahead of 2027.
This growing pro-Ruto bloc within ODM was emboldened further by Interior Principal Secretary Dr Raymond Omollo, who has become one of the administration’s most articulate emissaries to Nyanza.
“Development does not come by slogans or protest politics,” Omollo said.
“It comes when communities are represented at the centre of power.”
Omollo rallied Nyanza people to support President Ruto development projects and his second term bid saying given a second chance he will do more than he has visibly done.
"Let us unite solidly behind this government and you will reap alot of its development fruits," Dr Omollo told the Luo community asking them not to be swayed in the opposite political direction.

His remarks echoed Oburu’s core argument that exclusion from the executive is costly, and regions without bargaining power inevitably lag behind.
President Ruto, sensing momentum, doubled down on his charm offensive during a visit to Migori on Saturday.
Addressing ODM leaders, he urged them to remain united and steadfast “under my political armpit,” promising that loyalty would be rewarded.
He cautioned against what he termed “unnecessary political ecstasy”—a thinly veiled swipe at endless internal wrangling and ideological purism.
Ruto’s message was clear: those who stick with him stand to gain; those who fracture risk irrelevance.
The unfolding drama reveals an ODM at a crossroads. One path leads back to ideological opposition, championed by figures like Sifuna. The other, led by Oburu and backed by influential party powerbrokers, embraces transactional politics—support for Ruto in exchange for a guaranteed seat at the high table.
As 2027 inches closer, the question is no longer whether ODM will work with Ruto, but on what terms—and at what internal cost.
What is certain is that the battle for ODM’s soul is far from over, even as its leadership edges ever closer to State House.
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