By Benadeta Mwaura - Reporter
Kenya, April 10, 2026 - The Central Bank of Kenya (CBK) has confirmed an increase in international oil prices ahead of the next monthly fuel price review by the Energy and Petroleum Regulatory Authority (EPRA), signaling potential upward pressure on pump prices in the coming cycle.
In its latest market update, the Central Bank noted that global oil prices have been on an upward trajectory, driven largely by supply disruptions linked to escalating tensions in the Middle East.
The developments have raised concerns about the cost of fuel in Kenya, where prices are closely tied to international benchmarks.
The rise in oil prices comes amid heightened geopolitical instability, particularly around the Strait of Hormuz, a key corridor for global crude shipments.
Disruptions in the region have tightened supply and triggered volatility in energy markets, with ripple effects being felt across oil-importing economies.
For Kenya, which relies heavily on imported petroleum products, such global shocks translate directly into higher landed costs, putting pressure on both consumers and businesses.
The CBK update comes just days before EPRA announces its monthly fuel price adjustments, a process that determines the maximum retail prices for Super Petrol, Diesel and Kerosene.
Market watchers now expect the regulator to factor in the rising global prices, potentially leading to an increase in pump prices unless mitigated by government interventions such as subsidies or tax adjustments.
Any increase in fuel prices is likely to have a cascading effect on the broader economy.
Higher fuel costs typically push up: transport fares, food prices, as well as production and logistics expenses
This comes at a time when Kenyan households are already grappling with a high cost of living, with fuel playing a central role in determining the price of essential goods and services.
At the same time, EPRA had earlier conducted a nationwide crackdown on fuel stations, which had increased the cost of fuel, issuing them with show-cause letters.
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The CBK warning also highlights broader macroeconomic risks, particularly on inflation.
Rising energy costs could complicate the Central Bank’s efforts to maintain price stability, as fuel is a key driver of inflation in Kenya. An increase in pump prices could therefore trigger wider price adjustments across the economy.
The oil markets remain highly volatile, with prices reacting not only to actual supply disruptions but also to geopolitical risk and investor sentiment.
The ongoing tensions in the Middle East, combined with uncertainty over supply routes and production levels, mean that price fluctuations could persist in the near term.
The situation also presents a difficult balancing act between protecting consumers and maintaining market stability.
While subsidies can cushion consumers from price shocks, they also strain public finances. On the other hand, allowing prices to rise fully in line with global markets risks deepening economic hardship for households and businesses.
The CBK’s warning underscores the extent to which global events continue to shape Kenya’s economic outlook.
As EPRA prepares to announce new fuel prices, the focus will be on how the regulator navigates these pressures, and what the adjustments will mean for millions of Kenyans already feeling the strain of rising living costs.
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