Opinion -Somaliland Recognition Crisis: Lessons from Harrar and Policy Directions (3-3)

Editor’s Note: In this concluding part of the series (Somaliland Recognition Crisis: Lessons from Harrar and Policy Directions) Mohamed Dahir shifts from analysis to policy action, drawing on the Harrar precedent to outline practical options for Somalia, Somaliland, and international partners—framing the Somaliland question as a decisive test for stability and sovereignty in the Horn of Africa”.

Foreign governments should refrain from actions that treat Somaliland as a sovereign entity.

The Somaliland issue should be addressed through African Union and United Nations frameworks, not through individual geopolitical maneuvers.

Major powers can affirm this approach by issuing statements supporting Somalia’s constitutional process to resolve the status of its regions.

Support AU Mediation Efforts

International partners should encourage the African Union to take a more active role in facilitating dialogue.

The United Nations, European Union, Arab League, and other stakeholders should back an AU-led initiative to bring Somalia’s federal government and Somaliland officials to the table.

This may include offering neutral venues, technical expertise, or observers to talks.

The objective would be to explore creative arrangements—such as autonomy guarantees and power-sharing formulas—within Somalia’s constitutional order.

By working through the AU, which holds moral authority on African border issues, external powers can help ensure that any outcome is broadly acceptable in Africa and does not set a dangerous precedent.

Coordinate Reactions to Prevent Spoilers

The Israel–Somaliland episode demonstrated how a single outlier action can disrupt regional stability.

Going forward, major international actors should coordinate closely on the Horn of Africa.

Members of the UN Security Council and influential regional states—including the United States, United Kingdom, European Union, Gulf states, and Turkey—could form an informal contact group on the Somalia–Somaliland issue.

Through quiet diplomacy, they could collectively discourage further recognitions and instead channel efforts toward conflict resolution and development support.

Presenting a unified front would reduce Somaliland’s ability to play one country off another in pursuit of recognition.

Bolster Somalia’s State-Building and Security

A stable, well-governed Somalia represents the most effective long-term response to separatist pressures.

International partners should increase assistance to Somalia’s state-building efforts, including capacity-building for federal institutions, economic investment, and security-sector reform.

Particular attention should be given to integrating local forces from areas such as SSC-Khaatumo.

This support must be accompanied by respect for Somalia’s ownership of its internal affairs.

Strengthening governance and service delivery nationwide will address legitimate frustrations that fuel secessionist sentiment.

It will also reassure local populations that remaining part of Somalia brings tangible benefits, whereas breaking away leads to uncertainty and isolation.

Avoid Military Deals that Bypass Mogadishu

Foreign powers seeking strategic access—such as ports or military facilities in the Red Sea arena—should work through the Somali Federal Government rather than striking side deals with Somaliland.

Any security cooperation in Somaliland’s territory must have Mogadishu’s consent, in accordance with Somalia’s sovereignty.

This principle should be clearly communicated by major donors and military partners.

For example, if international naval forces seek logistical hubs in Berbera or elsewhere, agreements should be negotiated with the FGS.

Such an approach prevents legitimizing Somaliland authorities as equivalent to Somalia’s government and avoids fueling perceptions or realities of proxy competition.

It also aligns with Somalia’s efforts to establish uniform rules for foreign presence across all its regions.

Support Humanitarian Access and Reconciliation

International organizations and donor nations should press for unfettered humanitarian access to conflict-affected areas, including Las Anod.

If Somaliland authorities continue to restrict aid or services as punishment for dissident regions, global donors should speak out and, if necessary, reroute assistance through impartial channels such as local NGOs or UN agencies in coordination with the FGS.

In addition, donors should support reconciliation initiatives, including funding local peace dialogues among clans in Sool and Sanaag and providing expertise in post-conflict reconstruction and trauma healing.

Such carefully delivered external support can help repair divisions exacerbated by Somaliland’s military response.

It signals to Somaliland’s population that the international community prioritizes civilian well-being over political expediency.

6.1.2. For Somaliland’s Leadership (Hargeisa Administration)

Somaliland’s leadership should immediately cease offensive military operations in contested areas such as Las Anod.

Continuing military crackdowns will only deepen Somaliland’s isolation and further erode its legitimacy.

Instead, authorities should commit to a ceasefire and accept neutral monitoring where necessary.

In parallel, Somaliland’s leadership should publicly acknowledge the political nature of conflicts in Sool, Sanaag, and Awdal.

These are Somali communities with genuine grievances, not terrorist entities.

Abandoning the “extremism” narrative would signal readiness for a political solution.

Respected traditional elders and community leaders—including those opposed to Somaliland—should be invited to mediated dialogue on local governance and power-sharing.

The events of Las Anod demonstrated that coercion produces long-term strategic loss rather than compliance.

A good-faith dialogue, potentially facilitated by the Somali federal government or the African Union, remains the only viable path to rebuilding trust.

Recalibrate the Quest for Recognition

A single recognition achieved through secretive bargains has backfired.

Rather than expanding legitimacy, it triggered condemnation from the African Union and neighboring states, leaving Somaliland more isolated.

Somaliland’s leadership should pause and reassess its strategy.

If international recognition remains an objective, it should be pursued through regional legitimacy first—by addressing Somalia’s and Africa’s objections through negotiation rather than end-runs that alarm the region.

Any agreement involving foreign military assets or population relocation on behalf of external powers is guaranteed to provoke regional backlash and internal dissent.