Kenya’s Global Credit Score: Why a ‘B-’ is Good News With a Big Warning

We are currently hitting a "Tax Exhaustion" ceiling; after the social and political pressures of the last two years, the public appetite for further tax hikes has evaporated. When you combine this with the reality that overseas borrowing repayment will balloon to over $5 billion annually between 2028 and 2030, the math starts to look precarious. We’ve successfully pushed the pain into the future, but we haven't actually reduced the burden.

The most concerning takeaway is perhaps our cooling relationship with concessional lenders. With Fitch projecting that Kenya may not be under an IMF program in the 2026 financial year, and with World Bank disbursements hanging in the balance over reform benchmarks, we are losing our "fiscal anchors." Without the disciplined oversight of these international bodies, Kenya risks being forced back into the expensive arms of commercial lenders, a cycle that historically leads to more pain for the taxpayer.

Ultimately, the ‘B-’ rating is a badge of survival, not a trophy of success. It proves we can navigate a storm, but it doesn't mean the ship is leak-proof. The government’s smart borrowing strategies have bought us much-needed time, but time is only valuable if used to fix the underlying structural weaknesses in our economy. Until we can align our ambitious spending with the reality of what we actually collect in taxes, we will remain one global shock away from a downgrade. The tightrope is holding for now, but the wind is picking up, and the safety net is looking thinner by the day.

* The opinion expressed in this article are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Dawan Africa.