By Mubarik Mohamed Ahmed - International development expert
The local council elections scheduled later this month could alter the trajectory of Somali politics. For the first time in decades, ordinary citizens may participate in genuine one-person-one-vote polls — a shift that threatens the entrenched power system Somalia’s political elite have depended on for years. Their growing resistance reveals a simple truth: direct democracy endangers the monopoly they have long enjoyed.
A System Designed to Keep Power at the Top
Across two electoral cycles, Somalia has been governed through indirect voting, where clan-appointed delegates select members of parliament. What began as a transitional compromise has solidified into a mechanism of elite control.
In practice, the system resembles a marketplace more than a political process. Parliamentary seats are traded, negotiated, and sometimes bought outright. Federal Member State leaders treat these seats as personal property and use them to install loyalists while sidelining anyone with genuine grassroots support.
This arrangement has shattered the social contract. Officials owe their positions not to voters but to the powerbrokers who financed their rise. Accountability flows upward — never downward to the public.
Why Local Elections Could Transform Everything
Direct elections for local councils present the first real opportunity to break this cycle. Local government is where citizens encounter the state most directly: services, roads, dispute resolution, and administrative decisions that affect daily life.
If district representatives are chosen through direct voting, two major changes will follow:
- Legitimacy will shift to the people. Somali officials would be accountable to citizens rather than wealthy patrons in Mogadishu or state capitals.
- A precedent will be set. Once local positions are filled through direct suffrage, maintaining indirect federal elections becomes politically and morally indefensible. The elite understand that this step would make nationwide one-person-one-vote inevitable.
Debunking the Security Argument
Opponents argue that Somalia is too insecure for direct elections. While security challenges are real, the argument ignores global precedents.
Countries such as Afghanistan, Iraq, and Liberia have held elections amid conflict or instability — often strengthening state legitimacy in the process. Allowing citizens to vote can reduce grievances and foster ownership of political institutions.
It is also overlooked that indirect elections already bring clan delegates together in vulnerable, high-risk gatherings. Distributed polling stations used for direct voting could actually reduce risks and widen participation.
The real concern is not the security environment — it is that a free vote would expose how little support many political elites actually command.
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A Moment of Opportunity
The National Independent Electoral Commission has developed the infrastructure required for direct voting, and voter registration in permitted areas has shown strong enthusiasm. The capacity exists; what is lacking is political will from those invested in the status quo.
International partners should not mistake technical reforms for political legitimacy. No amount of development aid or state-building assistance can replace the foundational requirement of democratic consent.
A new generation of young, educated, and increasingly frustrated Somalis deserves the opportunity to shape its own political future. The indirect system no longer merely limits participation — it actively undermines the country’s stability by institutionalizing corruption and suffocating public trust.
A Democratic Reckoning Is Coming
Somalia’s opposition argues that the country is too fragile for direct democracy. In reality, Somalia is too fragile to continue denying citizens their fundamental right to choose their leaders.
The greatest threat to the political elite is not violence or instability — it is the silent sound of millions of pens marking ballots. That sound signals the possible end of an era built on exclusion, and the beginning of a more legitimate Somali democracy.
Whether this moment arrives next month or is delayed by those clinging to privilege will determine whether Somalia moves forward or remains trapped in its old political architecture.
The choice is clear. The time is now.
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*Mubarik Mohamed Ahmed is an international development expert and policy advocate specializing in climate resilience, social protection, and governance reform in fragile states.
The opinion expressed in this article are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Dawan Africa.
