By Ali Halane - Political Analyst
When Israel announced recognition of Somaliland in December, 2025, Somalia's political class responded exactly as one might expect: with outrage, condemnation, and remarkably little else. The moment revealed more than it resolved. But what it revealed—uncomfortable as it may be—might prove more valuable than what was lost.
For context: Somaliland declared independence from Somalia in 1991 but has never achieved international recognition. Somalia considers it a breakaway region. Israel's move represents the first major recognition by a significant state power, violating established norms of sovereignty and territorial integrity. It sets a dangerous precedent for other fragile regions across Africa and beyond.
Yet paradoxically, this decision may also be read as a precious gift—not because of its intent, but because of its consequences.
The recognition of Somaliland was not designed to promote peace or stability in the Horn of Africa. It was a calculated act rooted in geopolitical bargaining and strategic self-interest. But politics is often shaped less by intentions than by effects. In one stroke, this decision stripped away long-standing illusions that had obscured Somalia's internal condition—politically, socially, and strategically.
What the Moment Revealed
What it revealed first was fragility. Not merely institutional weakness, which has long been acknowledged, but a deeper fragility of collective purpose. Somalia today remains a state struggling to articulate a shared national project capable of absorbing major external shocks. The reaction to the recognition exposed how thin the consensus remains on fundamental questions of sovereignty, identity, and long-term direction.
The political elite did not escape this exposure. Responses oscillated between performative outrage and tactical silence. Few articulated a coherent strategy extending beyond condemnation. Fewer still demonstrated readiness to pay the political cost of sustained, disciplined action. Sovereignty, in practice, appeared for some less a principle than a bargaining position.
Religious leaders, often expected to provide moral clarity, were similarly divided. Loud rhetoric in public was not always matched by consistency or courage in private. The episode highlighted how deeply politicized religious discourse has become, and how limited its capacity now is to unify society at moments of national trial.
Society at large reflected another uncomfortable truth: the prevalence of symbolic anger without structural follow-through. Social media brimmed with indignation, but indignation alone does not produce strategy. Emotional reactions, however sincere, dissipate quickly when they are not anchored in organization, patience, and long-term vision.
At the regional and international levels, the decision functioned as a geopolitical x-ray. Allies, adversaries, and those preferring strategic ambiguity revealed themselves with unusual clarity. Once again, international politics demonstrated a basic rule: there is no vacuum. States that fail to define their priorities decisively will find those priorities defined by others.
Fear followed—fear of precedent, fear of fragmentation, fear of an uncertain future. But fear itself is not the problem. Denial is. History suggests that nations capable of confronting uncomfortable truths are better positioned to adapt and endure.
What the Response Requires
This brings Somalis to a central question: do they possess the political maturity required to turn this shock into leverage?
At present, the answer remains uncertain. Somalia lacks a leadership class clearly prepared for a long, uneven contest conducted through diplomacy, law, narrative, and strategic patience. Yet politics at this level is not governed by emotion or immediacy. It rewards endurance, coherence, and the ability to operate quietly while building capacity over time.
The adversary involved is neither marginal nor impulsive. Israel's move cannot be separated from a broader ecosystem of Western power, diplomatic protection, technological advantage, and strategic calculation. Actions taken by Benjamin Netanyahu are embedded in this system, not isolated from it. Any effective response must therefore be equally systemic, not reactive.
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Somali political culture, however, is not devoid of strategic wisdom. There is an old Somali story about how one confronts unavoidable hardship. When forced to drink a bitter drink, the wise person does so slowly and deliberately, like he is sipping a light tea infused with cinnamon and cardamom and camel milk, away from public spectacle—thinking carefully while enduring discomfort. Solutions, the story suggests, emerge not from noise, but from composure.
That sensibility may be Somalia's most undervalued resource.
The struggle triggered by this recognition will not be short, nor linear. It will follow indirect paths and may span generations. But it is not unwinnable. History repeatedly shows that asymmetry does not eliminate agency. What matters is whether that agency is exercised patiently and strategically.
Why This Could Be Transformative
And here, despite everything, there is room for cautious optimism.
This episode has revived questions long suppressed rather than resolved. It has reopened debate about identity, borders, and collective destiny—questions that resonate deeply among more than forty million Somalis across the Horn of Africa and the diaspora.
Already, there are signs of shift. Somali diaspora networks—long fractured along clan and regional lines—have begun coordinating with unusual unity. Professional associations, business councils, and cultural organizations that rarely collaborated are now convening joint meetings. The African Union, initially slow to respond, has found itself under sustained pressure from Somali diplomatic efforts and broader African concerns about the precedent. Legal challenges are being prepared in multiple international forums.
More significantly, the crisis has forced internal conversations that have been deferred for decades. Federal member states and Mogadishu, often at odds, have discovered overlapping interests. Young Somalis, typically disengaged from formal politics, are organizing grassroots campaigns with surprising sophistication. The question is no longer whether Somalia will respond, but whether it can sustain this energy beyond the initial shock.
The idea of Somali unity—not as territorial expansion, but as cultural, economic, and political coordination across borders—has resurfaced not as romantic nostalgia, but as a practical question. What would it mean for Somalis in Somalia, Kenya, Ethiopia, and Djibouti to act with greater strategic coherence? Not through irredentist claims that alarm neighbors, but through trade networks, educational exchange, and diplomatic coordination that strengthens the entire region. This vision alarms some precisely because it is achievable.
From this perspective alone, the decision carries an unintended consequence. It forces Somalis to confront who they are, what they want, and what they are willing to build together over time. In doing so, it restores a sense of historical agency that had quietly eroded.
For that reason—and only in that sense—the moment may be described, without irony, as a precious gift.
When that moment arrives—when Somalis have transformed this violation into a catalyst for genuine unity—the irony will be complete. Benjamin Netanyahu may have intended to weaken Somalia. Instead, he may have done what decades of its own political leaders could not: forced an honest reckoning with what Somalia is, and what it could become.
That would indeed be a precious gift—one history will remember, even if Netanyahu never intended to give it. Thanks to his gamble.Ali Halane is a Somali journalist, researcher specializing in African and Middle Eastern affairs, and co-founder of the Somali Cultural Parliament.
The opinion expressed in this article are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Dawan Africa
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