Op-Ed: Peaceful Transfer of Power and the Protection of Somalia’s Fragile State

“In Somalia, the peaceful transfer of power is not merely a political ritual — it is the thin line between fragile stability and renewed uncertainty. As tensions rise over elections and constitutional change, the country faces another defining moment”.

The success of Somalia’s state-building journey depends less on who wins political office and more on whether power is transferred peacefully and with broad national acceptance. In a fragile state, elections cannot be viewed merely as ordinary political events; they must be understood as critical moments that can either strengthen public institutions or deepen existing fragility.

Given the ongoing federal tensions, insecurity, humanitarian crises, and deep-seated social distrust, the orderly transfer of power is not merely a ceremonial matter; it is a prerequisite for Somalia’s survival as a functioning state.

A peaceful transfer of power is more than a change of leadership at Villa Somalia; it is a collective commitment to keeping political competition within constitutional limits. It reflects broad acceptance among stakeholders that authority resides in institutions rather than individuals.

A peaceful handover strengthens institutional performance, while unilateral term extensions expose state fragility and make the country more vulnerable to violence.

Somalia’s successive governments have already demonstrated that peaceful political transition is possible. Despite many imperfections, the post-2000 political process has facilitated multiple leadership changes and shown that smooth transitions can stabilize the country and ensure governmental continuity.

 The Africa Center for Strategic Studies highlights that Somalia’s successive electoral cycles since the establishment of the Third Republic in 2000 have helped formalize leadership succession despite the country’s fragile political landscape.

However, the current political environment is becoming increasingly sensitive. Tensions over constitutional amendments, elections, and the federal government’s authority to unilaterally direct the electoral process have significantly eroded trust among key political stakeholders.

The Heritage Institute for Policy Studies notes that Mogadishu’s efforts to manage local, regional, and national elections through recent constitutional amendments and new electoral legislation have heightened political friction and created competing legal interpretations regarding jurisdictional authority between Mogadishu and some Federal Member States. Within this fragile context, the peaceful transfer of authority requires broad political consensus to prevent political competition from escalating into open conflict.

The danger is that unresolved political disagreements could erode the very foundations of the state. When elections are perceived as unfair, delayed without broad consensus, or controlled unilaterally by the incumbent leadership, public trust in government institutions declines, opposition groups withdraw from the electoral process, and Federal Member States reduce cooperation with the Federal Government. Security forces may also fracture along clan lines. Once public institutions lose their neutrality, the state becomes weaker, and political disagreements can devolve into widespread conflict.

This is particularly dangerous as Somalia continues to face a persistent insurgency. Al-Shabaab remains a major threat, frequently carrying out attacks and exploiting internal political divisions. The contested constitutional review process and electoral roadmap have already generated deep political tensions and, in some areas, violent confrontations.

A smooth transfer of power is also essential for maintaining public confidence. Governments gain legitimacy when officials lead by example and adhere to the same rules they expect others to obey. Many Somalis are weary of elite political conflicts, while ordinary citizens continue to grapple with pressing challenges such as food insecurity, unemployment, displacement, and inadequate public services.

Peaceful political transition also strengthens Somalia’s international credibility. Somalia relies heavily on cooperation with international partners for security, development assistance, debt relief, and institution-building. Consequently, investors, donors, and diplomatic partners closely monitor whether political leaders can achieve consensus on the electoral process.

 A smooth and peaceful transition signals that the country is becoming more stable and politically mature. In contrast, repeated election crises every four years suggest that stability remains fragile and imply that laws can be bypassed and authority acquired through coercion rather than the rule of law.