By Kepher Otieno - Senior Journalist, Columnist and Regular Advocate for Democracy & Good Governance.
Kenya, 5 June 2026 - The battle for the future of ODM is no longer taking place behind closed doors. It is now unfolding in public. It is ideological. It is strategic. And increasingly, it is personal.
At the centre stands the ODM party leader Dr Oburu Oginga. Elder statesman. The late Raila Odinga's elder brother. Transitional custodian of the Orange Democratic movement.
He has moved with growing confidence to assert himself as ODM's de facto and de jure leader following Raila's demise and exit from active party leadership.
Yet across the political divide within ODM stands fiery Siaya Governor James Orengo. Veteran lawyer. Long-serving democracy activist. Keeper of the party's reformist flame.
Their contest is rapidly defining the soul of ODM. For Oburu, the equation is straightforward.
Politics is about power. For Orengo, the equation is equally simple. Politics is about principles before power.
That difference explains the growing friction tearing through the party.
Oburu's message has become increasingly emphatic. "Tunataka power," he repeatedly tells ODM supporters. We want power. And according to him, that power today sits firmly in the hands of President William Ruto.
His argument resonates with many within ODM's old guard.
For more than three decades, the movement fought from the opposition trenches. It challenged one-party rule. It resisted authoritarianism. It paid political and personal costs.
At the centre of that struggle stood Mr Raila Odinga.
The movement may not have captured State House. But it fundamentally transformed Kenya. Many people say so and I equally agree.
It contributed to the restoration of multiparty democracy. It expanded political freedoms. It strengthened freedom of association and expression. It helped secure devolution.
It championed constitutional reforms culminating in the 2010 Constitution. It entrenched an expansive Bill of Rights. It widened democratic space for millions of Kenyans.
To Oburu and his allies, that chapter is complete. The struggle delivered reforms.
The next phase must deliver power.
And if President Ruto is willing to embrace ODM leaders, ODM supporters and communities historically excluded from government, then political pragmatism demands engagement rather than perpetual resistance.
In essence, Oburu is advancing what may be called the "Power Doctrine."
His camp believes opposition politics without access to power eventually becomes political self-harm.
The thinking echoes former President Daniel arap Moi who mastered the art of political accommodation under the famous maxim that politics without access to power translates into poor political fortunes. He called it siasa mbaya maisha mbaya. And the opposite is rejoice.
The logic is seductive.
Why remain outside government indefinitely when the doors have finally opened and the occupants are accommodative?
Why reject influence when it is available?. It's the reason Homabay Governor and ODM chair Gladys Wanga argues and claims that they have no space to board opposition bus? For her it's full, the party luminaries have no space there neither are ODM supporters. Interesting logic.
She argues Why fight yesterday's wars when today's realities are different? The party is now feeling more annexed and represented in the government.
But this is precisely where Orengo parts company with Oburu and her.
The Siaya governor sees danger where Oburu sees opportunity.
For Orengo, ODM was never merely an electoral machine. It was conceived as a reform movement.
A vehicle for social justice.
A platform for accountability.
A defender of constitutionalism.
A watchdog against abuse of power.
His camp insists that many of the grievances that birthed ODM remain unresolved.
Youth unemployment remains stubbornly high.Economic inequality persists.
Questions around governance continue to dominate public discourse.
Human rights concerns remain active.
The distribution of national resources still provokes political tension.
For Orengo, abandoning these causes in pursuit of proximity to power would amount to ideological surrender.
That explains his persistent calls for reforms and accountability even as ODM deepens cooperation with the Kenya Kwanza administration.
To his supporters, this is not rebellion.
It is fidelity to ODM's founding principles.
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The political conflict became even more intriguing when Oburu briefly declared that he would defend his Siaya Senate seat in 2027.
The statement triggered immediate speculation.Within ODM circles, whispers spread rapidly.
If Oburu was retreating to county politics, then a leadership vacuum was emerging at the national level.
And few figures appeared better positioned to occupy that vacuum than Orengo.
The governor's stature within ODM remains significant.
His credentials in the second liberation struggle remain unmatched among many younger leaders.
His reformist credentials appeal to sections of the party uncomfortable with the broad-based government arrangement.
The possibility of Orengo emerging as ODM's next national standard-bearer suddenly became real.
Then came the recalibration.
Oburu quickly abandoned any suggestion of a Senate bid and declared interest in the Presidency, slowing on Senate though he didn't recant the bid.
The move effectively shut down speculation about succession.
It was also strategically significant.
Under ODM traditions, the party leader enjoys automatic prominence in presidential nomination calculations unless challenged through internal party mechanisms.
The declaration was therefore more than a presidential ambition.
It was a statement of authority.
A signal that the succession battle remains unfinished.
A reminder that leadership transitions are rarely surrendered voluntarily.
Today, ODM finds itself divided into two broad philosophical camps.
One camp views President Ruto as an opportunity.
The other views him as a test.
One sees power-sharing as a pathway to political relevance.
The other sees opposition oversight as a democratic obligation.
One believes the road to Canaan passes through negotiated cooperation.
The other believes it passes through principled resistance and electoral competition.
Neither side appears ready to retreat.
And therein lies the dilemma.
ODM's future may ultimately be determined not by who controls the party headquarters, but by which argument resonates most with ordinary supporters.
Oburu is asking members to embrace political pragmatism.
Orengo is asking them to defend political idealism.
Power versus principle.
Accommodation versus resistance.
Government versus opposition.
That is the contest now consuming Kenya's most influential opposition movement.
And as 2027 approaches, it may become the defining political battle within ODM itself.
The writer is a senior journalist based in Kenya, columnist and media consultant and a regular advocate for democracy and good governance in Africa. Email: Kepher43@gmail.com
The opinions expressed in this article are those of the writer and do not necessarily reflect the views of Dawan Africa.