By Asha Elmi - The Editor-in-Chief of Dawan Media
“The future of Somalia’s elections will not be defined by political slogans, but by who chooses the candidates, who controls the seats, and whether every citizen’s vote truly carries equal value.”- Asha Elmi
Somalia’s electoral debate is often reduced to one compelling phrase: one person, one vote. Yet the four models presented by the Federal Government and three opposition groups do not give that phrase the same meaning.
Some allow citizens to vote for political parties, others for individual constituency candidates, while another introduces direct voting for seats that would remain allocated through Somalia’s clan-based 4.5 formula.
The question is therefore not simply whether citizens will vote. It is what they will vote for, who decides which candidates may compete, and how votes will be converted into parliamentary seats.
The Federal Government, Somali Future Council, Nabad iyo Nolol and the Somali National Unity Council have each presented a proposal. None has yet become an agreed national electoral framework. The parties remain divided over electoral legislation, election management, the role of Federal Member States, security arrangements, dispute resolution and the implementation timetable.
Türkiye is facilitating talks, with representatives of the United States, the United Kingdom, the European Union and the United Nations participating in consultations. Although no formal agreement has yet emerged, negotiations are continuing, with another round expected on July 20.
The Federal Government: Direct, Party-Based Elections#
The Federal Government proposes replacing Somalia’s indirect parliamentary elections with direct voting based on voter registration and political parties.
Citizens would directly elect members of the House of the People, replacing the current system in which traditional elders and selected delegates choose lawmakers. The President would continue to be elected by Parliament.
The Banadir local elections in December 2025 provided the clearest demonstration of this approach. Mogadishu residents directly elected district councillors from competing political associations, who in turn would choose the city administration.
Applied nationally, voters would choose among competing candidates or political parties, with the winning candidate securing the parliamentary seat. Unlike the current system, seats would not be reserved in advance for particular clans.
The proposal represents the most significant attempt to shift Somali politics from clan-based representation towards competition based on political parties and policy programmes.
Yet adopting direct elections alone does not guarantee democratic credibility. Questions remain about the independence of the electoral commission, voter registration, political competition, security and the ability to conduct polling in areas beyond the government’s full control.
Nabad iyo Nolol: Party Voting and Proportional Representation#
Nabad iyo Nolol also proposes party-based elections, but through proportional representation.
Rather than electing individual constituency winners, citizens would vote for political parties, with parliamentary seats allocated according to each party’s share of the national vote.
Registration and voting would take place at the same polling station on the same day, a system the party argues would simplify participation in a country that still lacks a complete voter register.
In practice, if a party received 40 percent of the vote, it would receive roughly 40 percent of parliamentary seats. Every vote would therefore contribute to the party’s overall representation, even if it did not finish first in a particular constituency.
The key unanswered question is who would occupy those seats. Would parties submit lists of candidates before the election? If so, would they be closed lists controlled by party leadership, or open lists allowing voters to influence which candidates enter Parliament?
The distinction is important. Closed lists concentrate power within party leadership, while open lists give voters greater influence over parliamentary representation.
The proposal must also explain how it would safeguard representation for women, minority communities and less populous regions.
According to Nabad iyo Nolol, the proposal builds on a technical electoral framework developed during former President Mohamed Abdullahi Farmaajo’s administration in 2018.
The National Unity Council: The Highest-Polling Candidate Wins#
The Somali National Unity Council proposes direct elections for the House of the People through multiple constituencies, with each Federal Member State divided into at least six constituency areas.
Its first-past-the-post system awards each seat to the candidate receiving more votes than any other competitor, even without an absolute majority.
Unlike proportional representation, which distributes seats according to parties’ overall vote share, this model awards every constituency to its highest-polling candidate.
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Members of the House of the People would therefore be elected directly without parliamentary seats being reserved for clans, while members of the Upper House would continue to be selected through state-level processes, preserving the chamber’s federal role.
The proposal also includes nationwide voter registration, an independent Federal Election Commission, a permanent Electoral Dispute Resolution Commission and appeals to the Supreme Court. It would also make the constitutional requirement for a 30 percent women’s quota legally enforceable.
These institutional safeguards recognise that credible elections depend not only on public voting but also on trusted mechanisms capable of resolving disputes and enforcing electoral rules.
The Somali Future Council: Direct Voting Within 4.5#
The Somali Future Council proposes a Transitional Direct Elections Model that combines public voting with the continued use of the 4.5 formula.
Four electoral districts would be established in each Federal Member State. Seats would be distributed among them according to agreed clan-geographic considerations, with each seat assigned a polling station.
Citizens would register and vote on the same day, casting one vote for one seat. However, each seat would remain allocated to a particular sub-clan. Traditional elders would retain their role in distributing seats among clans and sub-clans.
The elder would no longer choose the final lawmaker, but would continue determining which sub-clan receives the seat. Every candidate contesting that seat would therefore have to belong to the designated sub-clan.
If, for example, a parliamentary seat were allocated to Sub-clan X, any eligible member of that community could contest it. If three candidates from Sub-clan X stood, the public would choose among them. Someone outside Sub-clan X could not compete for the seat, even if they lived in the constituency and enjoyed substantial local support. Voters would choose who occupies the seat, but not which community owns it.
This would mark a significant change from previous indirect elections because far more citizens would participate directly. Nevertheless, representation would continue to be based on the 4.5 formula.
Political parties would not participate, and federal parliamentary elections would be administered jointly by federal and state-level bodies.
The proposal is therefore direct voting, but not full one-person, one-vote democracy. It is public voting operating within the 4.5 framework—an expanded 4.5 system—which the council presents as a transitional compromise towards universal suffrage.
Direct Voting Is Not Necessarily Equal Voting#
A direct election means citizens cast their own ballots rather than being represented by delegates. Genuine one-person, one-vote democracy goes further. Votes should carry equal weight, citizens should enjoy an open right to compete, and parliamentary seats should be determined by voters rather than pre-allocated through clan arrangements.
An election can therefore be direct without being fully democratic. If citizens vote but seat ownership and candidate eligibility have already been determined through 4.5, participation expands while the basis of political representation remains unchanged.
That does not mean the model represents no progress. Allowing thousands of citizens to vote is unquestionably more democratic than limiting decisions to a small group of delegates.
But a system that continues reserving parliamentary seats by clan should not be presented as complete one-person, one-vote democracy.
A Timetable Is As Important As a Model#
The four proposals do not establish an agreed deadline for federal elections. Somalia needs more than a voting formula. It needs an agreed electoral law, a trusted election commission, a realistic budget, effective security arrangements and an independent dispute-resolution mechanism.
The July 20 talks should therefore clarify not only what citizens will vote for, but also who determines candidate eligibility, the future of the 4.5 formula, who will administer the election and when it can realistically be held.
The best agreement will not be the one that allows either the government or the opposition to declare political victory. It will be the one that gives citizens a meaningful vote, can be implemented under Somalia’s current conditions and commands sufficient political legitimacy.
Somalia may require a transitional arrangement before reaching universal suffrage, but every transition needs a clearly defined destination. Unless political leaders specify when and how the country will move beyond clan-based seat allocation, another “temporary” arrangement could become permanent.
The final question is therefore not simply one person, one vote or an expanded 4.5 system. It is which model that can genuinely give citizens meaningful political power, deliver a credible election and move Somalia beyond disputes that return every four years.
The answer lies not in the system’s name, but in who selects the candidates, who owns the seats and how a citizen’s vote is translated into political power.
Asha Elmi is the Editor-in-Chief of Dawan Media, a communications strategist, editorial leader, and media producer.
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The views expressed in this article are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Dawan Africa.