By Kepher Otieno - Reporter
Kenya, 10 June 2026 - A quiet but consequential struggle is unfolding inside Kenya’s Orange Democratic Movement.
It is not yet a formal split. It is not an open revolt. But it is a slow, steady contest over strategy, succession, and survival in the post-Raila Odinga era.
At the heart of it lies a fundamental question. Should ODM field a presidential candidate in 2027 or consolidate influence within government and wait for a better moment?
The debate has exposed competing centres of influence around veteran politician James Orengo and the party’s acting power structure linked to Oburu Oginga Odinga. It has also drawn in senior figures such as Edwin Sifuna, deepening what insiders describe as a strategic rather than ideological divide.
Orengo, a long-serving opposition figure and Siaya governor, is increasingly positioning himself as a standard-bearer for a renewed presidential push. His argument is rooted in political identity and historical ambition. He believes ODM must not retreat from national contests. He has privately and publicly signalled willingness to run against President William Ruto in 2027.
“We cannot reduce ODM into a support structure of other formations,” he has said in recent political engagements, according to party insiders. “We must remain a party that contests for power.”
His position resonates with a section of ODM loyalists who argue that the party risks political irrelevance if it permanently abandons presidential contests. They see ODM’s historical mission, built under former party leader Raila Odinga, as unfinished. For them, participation in presidential elections is not optional. It is existential.
But that view is increasingly clashing with a more pragmatic school of thought led by defacto party leader Dr Oburu Oginga. Oburu, now a central figure in ODM’s internal hierarchy, is cautious about another high-risk presidential venture. He argues that Kenyan political history is unforgiving to opposition bids that lack broad national coalitions.
He often points to precedent. Efforts to remove former President Mwai Kibaki before the end of his term failed despite intense mobilisation. Similar opposition strategies against former President Uhuru Kenyatta also collapsed. Oburu’s conclusion is blunt. The arithmetic of Kenyan presidential politics rarely favours fragmented opposition formations.
“We must be realistic about where power lies and how it is acquired,” he has said in closed-door meetings, according to party officials. “History has shown that going it alone does not deliver the presidency.”
Oburu’s camp now argues that ODM should prioritise its participation in the Broad-Based Government arrangement. The logic is that influence inside government structures is more valuable than symbolic opposition politics. They argue that engagement with President Ruto’s administration ensures access to resources, policy leverage, and regional development gains.
“We are already in government in many ways,” one senior ODM strategist said. “Why abandon that and gamble on uncertain electoral arithmetic?”
That argument has gained traction among pragmatists within the party. They believe ODM should consolidate its position, avoid internal fragmentation, and potentially prepare for a stronger national bid in 2032 rather than 2027.
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But that approach is precisely what Orengo and his allies reject. They argue that prolonged cooperation with government risks diluting ODM’s identity as an opposition force. They warn that political cohabitation could demobilise its grassroots base, particularly in its Luo heartland and urban strongholds.
Sifuna has been particularly vocal in defending ODM’s independence, insisting that the party must retain its electoral competitiveness. Party insiders say he has warned that ODM cannot afford to “drift into comfort politics” at the expense of long-term relevance.
The tension has created an unusual dynamic inside the party leadership. Oburu, by virtue of his senior position, is seen as the de facto custodian of ODM’s current strategy. But Orengo’s growing assertiveness has complicated that authority. His decision to openly float a presidential bid has effectively forced the party to confront questions it had hoped to postpone.
At one point, Oburu reportedly considered focusing solely on his Senate seat in Siaya County. However, he later reversed the decision amid concerns that it could be interpreted as opening space for Orengo to consolidate an uncontested path to ODM’s internal nomination processes. The episode underscored the fragile balance within the party hierarchy.
The internal calculation is now clear. If ODM endorses a presidential candidate in 2027, it risks a high-stakes confrontation with Ruto, whose political machinery remains dominant and adaptable. If it refrains, it risks internal fragmentation and possible defections by ambitious leaders seeking independent platforms.
For Orengo, the equation is personal and political. He represents a generation of ODM leaders who believe the party’s founding mission remains incomplete. For Oburu, it is structural and strategic. He sees a political environment where survival depends on negotiation, not confrontation.
The broader national context adds further complexity. Kenya’s electoral history shows that incumbency is a powerful advantage. Opposition coalitions have repeatedly struggled to unseat sitting presidents within a single electoral cycle. This reality continues to shape ODM’s internal debate.
For now, the party remains publicly united. But privately, the contest is sharpening. It is a struggle over timing, identity, and strategy. It is also a test of whether ODM can transition from Raila Odinga’s personal political legacy into a coherent post-Raila political machine.
As one senior party insider put it, “This is no longer just about 2027. It is about what ODM becomes after Raila.”
The answer remains uncertain. But the contest is already underway.