Infotrak Survey: UDA Leads Party Popularity with 23% Support

By Kepher Otieno - Reporter

Kenya, 28 December 2025 - As Kenya’s political class gradually shifts its focus to the 2027 General Election, the latest opinion polling suggests an early contest defined less by firm loyalties and more by voter uncertainty, economic anxiety and evolving political alignments.

The survey places the ruling United Democratic Alliance (UDA) at the top of party popularity with 23% support, followed by the Orange Democratic Movement (ODM) at 19%.

While the rankings give UDA an edge, pollsters caution that the numbers point to a competitive and unsettled landscape rather than clear dominance by any single party.

Infotrak Research and Consulting, which conducted the poll, says the narrow margin between the two leading parties reflects the fluid nature of Kenyan politics at this stage of the electoral cycle.

“What we are seeing is not entrenched party loyalty but a snapshot of current sentiment,” said Infotrak chief executive Angela Ambitho.

“With more than two years to the election, voter preferences remain highly malleable.”

According to Ambitho, the results should be read as an early signal rather than a prediction of how Kenyans will ultimately vote.

“Party popularity at this point is influenced by visibility and incumbency, but it does not automatically translate into electoral outcomes,” she said, adding that political dynamics could shift significantly as campaigns take shape and alliances change.

The poll also reveals a fragmented political field beyond the two leading parties. Several smaller parties, including both newer formations and long-established outfits, registered single-digit support.

Infotrak officials say this fragmentation underscores the enduring importance of coalition politics in Kenya, where even modest levels of support can become strategically important.

“In a multiparty system like Kenya’s, small parties should not be dismissed,” Ambitho said.

“They often become critical players during coalition negotiations, especially in regions where the race is tight and margins matter.”

Perhaps the most consequential finding, however, is the large proportion of voters who remain unaligned. About a third of respondents either said they do not feel close to any political party or declined to reveal their preference.

Pollsters describe this bloc as a key swing segment that could ultimately determine the direction of the 2027 race.

“The size of the non-aligned voter group tells us that many Kenyans are still evaluating their options,” said Ambitho.

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“This level of indecision suggests that parties still have substantial work to do to persuade voters and build trust.”

Infotrak analysts link this uncertainty to growing issue-based voting, driven largely by economic pressures. The cost of living emerged as the single most important concern for voters, outweighing traditional political considerations. Corruption, access to healthcare and broader governance challenges also ranked highly, highlighting widespread frustration with economic hardship and public service delivery.

“Voters are clearly telling us that their choices in 2027 will be shaped by everyday realities,” Ambitho noted.

“Rising prices, household finances and access to essential services are at the centre of political decision-making. Parties that fail to address these concerns risk losing relevance, regardless of their history or branding.”

This issue-focused outlook, pollsters argue, may weaken long-standing party loyalties and open the door for shifts in support as campaigns intensify. It also means that party popularity alone is an incomplete measure of electoral strength, particularly in a context where leadership credibility, policy proposals and regional considerations remain decisive.

Infotrak officials stress that early polling should not be mistaken for a fixed roadmap to 2027. “Elections are influenced by many moving parts — leadership choices, alliances, national mood and unforeseen events,” Ambitho said.

“What this poll shows is an electorate that is attentive, cautious and willing to reconsider its options.”

Taken together, the findings point to a political environment marked by competition and volatility rather than certainty. While UDA enjoys an early lead and ODM remains a strong challenger, neither party commands overwhelming loyalty. With a large undecided electorate and economic concerns dominating public discourse, the battle for 2027 is likely to be shaped by how effectively parties respond to voters’ lived experiences and translate promises into credible solutions.

As Infotrak’s pollsters conclude, the coming period will be critical.

“The race is still wide open,” Ambitho said.

“The parties that listen most closely to voters and address their priorities stand the best chance of converting today’s sentiment into tomorrow’s support.”

Infotrak Survey: UDA Leads Party Popularity with 23% Support

Infotrak noted that the parties that listen most closely to voters and address their priorities stand the best chance of converting today’s sentiment into tomorrow’s support.