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Kenya, June 06, 2026 - As Kenyans await the next fuel price review by the Energy and Petroleum Regulatory Authority (EPRA), one question is increasingly dominating conversations among households, businesses and transport operators: will fuel prices rise again in June?
The answer lies somewhere between global geopolitics, Kenya's growing fuel demand and the government's ability to cushion consumers from international oil shocks.
The latest review, announced in May, delivered one of the sharpest fuel price increases in recent years. Super Petrol in Nairobi rose by Sh16.65 per litre to Sh214.25 while Diesel jumped by Sh46.29 to Sh242.92 per litre.
The government was forced to tap the Petroleum Development Levy (PDL) to cushion consumers from even higher prices.
Now attention has shifted to the June review expected around June 14.
One factor supporting higher prices is Kenya's own growing appetite for petroleum products.
Data from the Energy and Petroleum Regulatory Authority shows petroleum demand rose by 8.38 percent in the second half of 2025 to 3.16 million cubic metres.
Consumption was particularly strong during the festive season, reflecting increased mobility and economic activity.
The Petroleum Institute of East Africa (PIEA) also reported that total fuel consumption rose 10.7% in 2025 to 6.55 million cubic metres, reversing a slowdown recorded in previous years when high prices suppressed demand.
Transport, manufacturing, construction and agriculture were among the key drivers of growth.
This means Kenya is entering the June pricing cycle at a time when domestic demand remains relatively strong.
The more significant factor, however, remains developments in the Middle East.
Since February, tensions involving the United States, Iran and allied groups across the region have disrupted shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, one of the world's most critical oil transit routes.
Tanker traffic through Hormuz remains below normal levels despite ongoing negotiations, while uncertainty over a lasting peace deal continues to support oil prices. Brent crude was trading around $94.53 per barrel on June 5, while U.S. crude stood at $92.61.
The situation remains fragile.
According to reports, U.S. oil exports have surged to record levels as global buyers seek alternative supplies, causing inventories to tighten and raising concerns about future price spikes.
At the same time, tanker movements through the Gulf remain heavily disrupted, with analysts reporting that significant volumes of oil exports continue to face logistical challenges.
Energy Cabinet Secretary Opiyo Wandayi has maintained that fuel prices would be significantly higher were it not for government intervention through stabilization measures.
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His position reflects a difficult reality facing the government.
Kenya imports virtually all of its petroleum requirements through the Open Tender System, consuming roughly five million tonnes of petroleum products annually.
This leaves the country highly exposed to international price shocks and exchange-rate movements.
While the government has used the Petroleum Development Levy to cushion consumers in recent months, that option is not unlimited.
Based on current market indicators, a major reduction in pump prices appears unlikely.
Three factors support this view, including that global oil prices remain elevated compared to early 2026 levels, the Strait of Hormuz situation remains unresolved, and domestic fuel demand continues to grow strongly.
However, there is also no clear evidence pointing to another dramatic increase similar to May's sharp jump.
Oil prices have stabilized below the highs seen immediately after the Middle East conflict escalated, and markets appear to be pricing in the possibility of eventual diplomatic progress.
If current trends hold, Kenya's June fuel review is likely to fall into one of three scenarios: Most likely scenario, is that of small increases or marginal adjustments of between KSh2 and KSh10 per litre for petrol and diesel.
Alternative scenario, could be prices remaining largely unchanged if the government deploys additional stabilization funds through the Petroleum Development Levy.
But the worst-case scenario could be renewed escalation in the U.S.-Iran conflict or further disruption in Hormuz could push crude prices above $100 per barrel again, potentially triggering another significant increase in local pump prices.
For now, motorists, businesses and households should prepare for continued volatility rather than relief.
The bigger concern may not be June alone, but whether tensions in the Middle East persist into the second half of the year.
If they do, Kenya's inflation outlook, transport costs, food prices and overall cost of living could once again come under pressure from a commodity that remains central to every sector of the economy.
In short, while a repeat of May's shock increase is not the base-case expectation, the chances of a meaningful reduction in fuel prices this month remain slim.
The international oil market is simply too uncertain, and Kenya remains too dependent on imported fuel, for consumers to expect significant relief just yet.