By Benadeta Mwaura - Reporter
Kenya, 3 April 2026 - Africa’s fragile economic recovery is facing a new and potentially more severe test, as the ongoing Middle East conflict threatens to trigger a sharper slowdown across the continent.
A new warning from the African Development Bank (AfDB) indicates that the war, already disrupting global energy markets, could significantly weaken growth prospects for African economies if it persists.
At the heart of the concern is a familiar vulnerability: Africa’s heavy dependence on imported fuel.
The conflict has tightened global oil supply, pushing up prices and injecting volatility into energy markets. For Africa, where many countries are net oil importers, this is not just a pricing issue, it is a structural shock.
Higher fuel costs ripple through entire economies.
Transport becomes more expensive. Food prices rise as distribution costs increase. Industrial production slows as energy inputs become costlier. And inflation, already a concern in many countries, begins to climb.
This is how an external conflict becomes a domestic economic problem.
Before the escalation of the conflict, Africa’s growth outlook was already facing downside risks, from debt pressures to climate shocks and currency volatility.
Now, those risks are intensifying.
The AfDB warns that prolonged instability in the Middle East could lower growth projections further, particularly for countries with limited fiscal space and high exposure to global commodity markets.
In simple terms, many African economies are entering this crisis with little room to absorb another shock.
One of the clearest structural challenges exposed by the crisis is Africa’s energy dependency.
Despite being resource-rich, the continent imports a significant portion of its refined petroleum products. This creates a paradox: oil-producing regions that are still vulnerable to global price swings because they lack sufficient refining capacity.
Countries like Nigeria have begun to address this through investments in domestic refining, most notably the Dangote Refinery, aimed at reducing reliance on imports and stabilising supply.
But for much of the continent, including East Africa, that transition is still in its early stages.
For Kenya and its regional peers, the risks are particularly acute.
As oil importers, these economies are directly affected by rising global prices and supply disruptions. The impact is already being felt through currency pressure, higher import bills and early signs of inflationary creep.
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This comes at a time when Kenya’s economy had begun to stabilise, with inflation moderating and the currency holding relatively steady. The current shock threatens to reverse those gains.
The energy shock is also feeding into broader financial vulnerabilities.
Rising import costs increase demand for foreign currency, putting pressure on already fragile exchange rates. At the same time, governments facing higher subsidy costs and social spending demands may be forced to borrow more, worsening debt positions.
This creates a dangerous cycle.
Currency depreciation fuels inflation. Inflation pressures central banks to tighten policy. Tighter policy slows growth. And slower growth reduces fiscal space even further.
The AfDB’s warning is not just about immediate risks, it is about long-term resilience.
The current crisis is exposing structural weaknesses that have long existed: limited energy diversification, low industrial capacity and heavy reliance on external markets.
Countries that have invested in alternative energy, diversified supply chains or built strategic reserves are better positioned to withstand the shock.
Others are now being forced to react in real time.
Africa is not the source of the current crisis, but it is among the most exposed to its consequences.
The continent’s growth story has always been tied to external forces. What is changing now is the intensity and frequency of those shocks.
The Middle East conflict is not just another disruption.
It is a stress test.
And for many African economies, including Kenya, the outcome will depend not just on how the crisis evolves but on how prepared they are to respond.
Because in a global economy shaped by volatility, resilience is no longer optional.