By Kepher Otieno - Reporter
Kenya, 7 April 2026 - In the simmering battle for coalition supremacy, Mathare MP Anthony Oluoch has thrown a sharp, uncompromising argument into the ring—one that cuts to the core of how power is negotiated, protected, and ultimately won.
“My opinion on the issue of zoning,” he declares, is not about convenience—it’s about principle.
At the heart of Oluoch’s analysis lies a stark fork in the road: Is Kenya heading toward a pre-election coalition—or a post-election pact?
The distinction, he argues, is not semantic. It is strategic—and potentially decisive.
"If parties are merely eyeing a post-election arrangement, then it’s a free-for-all," he claims.
Heavyweights like Orange Democratic Movement (ODM) can field candidates across the board—even for President and Deputy President—without restraint. Every party fights its own battle, hoping to negotiate power later.
But if the goal is a pre-election coalition, Oluoch warns, then discipline—not ambition—must take centre stage.
“An agreement must be arrived at about the top ticket,” the MP insists.
This is where zoning comes in—not as a luxury, but as a necessity.
"The logic of zoning is power through restraint," he observed.
Zoning, in Oluoch’s framing, is political choreography. It requires parties to strategically step back in certain regions to allow their partners to dominate—minimizing internal rivalry and maximizing overall coalition strength.
It’s a tactic Kenya has seen before. In 2013, under Coalition for Reforms and Democracy (CORD), ODM ceded Bungoma to Ford Kenya despite its own dominance.
In return, ODM retained strongholds across Nyanza, Coast, and much of Western Kenya.
More recently, zoning played out in by-elections in Magarini, Kasipul, Malava, and Mbeere North—quiet deals that avoided splitting the vote.
Even in Nairobi’s 2022 contests, a similar logic helped allied parties secure a majority.
The message is clear: coalitions win when partners avoid cannibalising each other.
The Presidency Paradox
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But zoning goes beyond parliamentary seats—it extends to the very top.
“When parties enter a coalition,” Oluoch notes, “they agree to preserve or protect positions like the Presidency for one party, while another takes the Deputy.”
Strip away that understanding, and the coalition begins to unravel before it even begins. Without zoning, each party is free to field its own presidential candidate—effectively dissolving the coalition into competing factions.
“If this is not done… the coalition will lose.”
A Swipe at UDA?
Oluoch doesn’t shy away from calling out what he sees as political hypocrisy.
Without naming names directly, he points to the imbalance where one party—widely understood to be United Democratic Alliance (UDA)—expects its presidential and deputy slots to be “preserved” and “protected,” while offering no such courtesy in return.
It would be “selfish,” he argues, for a dominant partner to demand uncontested control at the top while exposing its allies to bruising competition in every other race.
"In blunt terms: you can’t demand loyalty while denying survival space," he notes.
The Bottom Line
For Oluoch, zoning is not backroom politics—it is “common sense”.
It is the difference between a coalition that merely exists on paper and one that can actually win power—and govern effectively.
And as Kenya edges closer to its next electoral cycle, his warning hangs in the air: Ignore zoning, and risk fragmentation, the lawmaker asserts.
"Embrace it, and stand a fighting chance at State House."
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