By Benadeta Mwaura - Reporter
U.S July 8 2026 - Global oil markets have been thrown back into uncertainty after fresh attacks on commercial oil tankers near the Strait of Hormuz reignited fears of supply disruptions, pushing crude prices higher and threatening to reverse weeks of declining fuel costs.
The renewed tensions come just weeks after a fragile understanding between the United States and Iran had eased concerns over Middle East energy supplies. However, the latest attacks on vessels transiting one of the world's busiest oil shipping lanes have prompted Washington to reinstate sanctions on Iranian oil exports, triggering another wave of volatility across global energy markets.
Brent crude, the international benchmark used to price Kenya's imported petroleum products, climbed sharply following the incidents, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude also posted strong gains as traders priced in the risk of fresh supply disruptions. Brent traded above $76 per barrel, with both benchmarks recording gains of more than 3% in two trading sessions.
The attacks reportedly targeted three commercial vessels sailing through or near the Strait of Hormuz, a strategic maritime corridor linking the Persian Gulf to global markets. The waterway handles nearly 20% of the world's seaborne oil and liquefied natural gas exports, making it one of the most critical energy chokepoints globally.
According to U.S. officials, the attacks prompted military strikes against Iranian targets and the immediate revocation of a temporary licence that had allowed limited Iranian crude sales under a recent diplomatic arrangement. The U.S. described the attacks as unacceptable, although Tehran has not formally claimed responsibility.
Energy analysts say the latest developments have restored a geopolitical risk premium that had largely disappeared after the easing of hostilities in June.
"While the revocation doesn't fundamentally change oil market dynamics, it's important from a sentiment perspective. It heightens the risk of a breakdown in the temporary deal between the U.S. and Iran," ING commodity strategists said.
Market participants are also becoming increasingly concerned about the safety of commercial shipping through the Strait of Hormuz after reports that both a Qatari liquefied natural gas tanker and a Saudi-flagged crude oil tanker were damaged during the latest incidents.
Shipping insurers have reportedly raised risk assessments for vessels operating in the area, increasing transport costs for energy cargoes.
The renewed instability comes after oil prices had fallen significantly over recent weeks on expectations that improved diplomatic relations between Washington and Tehran would allow more Iranian crude to reach international markets and ease supply constraints.
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Instead, the latest escalation has reversed that trend, with traders abandoning expectations of a prolonged period of lower prices amid fears that shipping through Hormuz could once again be disrupted.
"The current conflagration is a reminder to the market of how fragile passage through the Strait still is," said Saul Kavonic, Head of Research at MST Marquee, noting that sustained disruptions could tighten global supplies and support higher crude prices.
For Kenya, the developments could have significant implications. As a net importer of petroleum products, the country remains highly exposed to fluctuations in international crude prices.
Any sustained increase in Brent crude is likely to translate into higher landed fuel costs, potentially affecting pump prices in future pricing cycles set by the Energy and Petroleum Regulatory Authority (EPRA).
Higher oil prices could also place renewed pressure on inflation by increasing transport and manufacturing costs, with businesses likely to pass on the additional expenses to consumers. Kenya has only recently begun experiencing relief from lower global fuel prices, which contributed to reductions in diesel prices during the latest EPRA review.
Although there is currently no major interruption to global oil supplies, prolonged military escalation or further attacks on commercial shipping could significantly tighten the market and trigger another spike in energy prices.
The uncertainty has also spilled into global financial markets, with investors shifting toward safer assets while energy stocks gained on expectations of stronger oil revenues. Meanwhile, shipping companies continue to monitor security developments in the Gulf as naval forces intensify patrols around one of the world's most strategically important maritime trade routes.