Water Stress, Power Politics and the Race to Future-Proof Kenya’s Grid

By Kepher Otieno - Reporter

Kenya, 23 January 2026 - Kenya’s electricity sector is once again staring down the barrel of climate reality, as water levels at the country’s most strategic hydroelectric installations continue to recede under a stubborn dry spell.

The latest data from the Kenya Electricity Generating Company (KenGen) paints a sobering picture: the Seven Forks cascade—long the backbone of Kenya’s hydropower system—is under visible strain.

As of Wednesday, water levels at Masinga and Kiambere dams had dropped by about three metres each, Kamburu by one metre, Kindaruma by two metres, and Gitaru by half a metre.

While the figures may appear modest in isolation, in energy terms they ring alarm bells. Hydropower output is exquisitely sensitive to water levels, and prolonged deficits in catchment rainfall can quickly translate into generation constraints.

The concern is not merely technical—it is political and economic.

The Seven Forks system accounts for a significant share of Kenya’s firm hydropower capacity, feeding electricity into an economy that is increasingly industrial, digitised and energy-hungry.

Any sustained dip in output risks cascading effects on manufacturing, services and household power costs.

Yet even as the numbers trigger anxiety, KenGen has struck a reassuring tone. Chief Executive Officer Eng. Peter Njenga has moved swiftly to calm nerves, insisting that the country’s power supply remains stable.

Speaking during an inspection tour of the Seven Forks cascade and the proposed High Grand Falls Hydropower Project site, Njenga underscored KenGen’s operational preparedness and diversified generation portfolio.

His message was carefully calibrated: acknowledge the challenge, but avoid panic. In an energy market where perception can be as disruptive as reality, such reassurance is critical.

Backing him was Energy Cabinet Secretary Opiyo Wandayi, whose presence at the inspection sent a clear signal that the issue has the full attention of government.

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Wandayi framed the dry spell not as a crisis, but as a stress test—one that reinforces the urgency of long-term planning.

At the heart of that planning are two major power projects the government says are nearing take-off.

The most ambitious is the High Grand Falls Hydropower Dam, a mega-project expected to inject 700 megawatts into the national grid.

Structured as a Public-Private Partnership (PPP), the project is being pitched as both an energy and economic catalyst, with Wandayi stating that the site visit reaffirmed government’s resolve to kick-start construction.

Alongside it is a 40.5-megawatt solar power project, also under a PPP model. While modest compared to High Grand Falls, its symbolism is powerful: a deliberate pivot toward solar energy at a time when climate variability is exposing the vulnerabilities of hydropower dependence.

Taken together, these projects signal a strategic recalibration of Kenya’s energy mix. For decades, hydropower has been both a blessing and a gamble—cheap and clean when rains are generous, but precarious when weather patterns shift. The current decline in dam levels is a stark reminder that climate change is no longer a future risk; it is a present constraint.

The government’s emphasis on diversification is therefore not optional—it is existential.

In blending large-scale hydro with solar and other renewables, policymakers hope to cushion the grid against rainfall shocks while sustaining momentum toward industrialisation.

Still, the immediate question lingers: how long will the dry spell last, and how far can water levels fall before operational limits are tested? KenGen’s assurances buy time, but they do not erase the underlying exposure.

In the end, the receding waters at Seven Forks are more than a hydrological concern—they are a warning flare. They underline the need for speed in energy reforms, investment discipline in mega-projects, and realism in climate planning. Kenya may be keeping the lights on today, but the race is on to ensure that tomorrow’s power does not depend on the mercy of the rains.