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Kenya, November 15, 2026 - President William Ruto remains the frontrunner in Kenya's presidential race heading into 2027, but a new poll suggests many voters are increasingly worried about the country's economic outlook and day-to-day cost of living.
According to a national survey released by Swiss Poll International, Ruto leads presidential preference with 37%, giving him a nine-point advantage over Kalonzo Musyoka, who polled at 28%. Edwin Sifuna followed in third place with 15% support.
While the numbers will be welcomed by the ruling camp, the poll paints a more complicated picture of the national mood.
Nearly half of those surveyed, 48%, said Kenya is moving in the wrong direction, compared with 41% who believe the country is headed in the right direction. Another 11% were undecided or neutral about the country's trajectory.
The findings come from 4,113 telephone interviews conducted between November 5 and November 10, 2026, with the pollster reporting a margin of error of plus or minus three percentage points.
More than just a snapshot of voting intentions, the survey offers an early indication of the issues likely to shape political debate as the country moves closer to the 2027 General Election.
Beyond the top three candidates, former Interior Cabinet Secretary Fred Matiang’i and former Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua each received 6%, while Ndindi Nyoro polled at 4%.
The pollster cautioned that the results reflect voter sentiment during the survey period and should not be interpreted as a prediction of the eventual election outcome.
The survey also measured party support, where Ruto's United Democratic Alliance (UDA) emerged as the most popular party with 34.1% backing. It was followed by LMM at 15.1% and DCP at 9.8%.
However, the most revealing findings may lie beyond electoral numbers.
When respondents were asked why they felt Kenya was moving in the wrong direction, the answers reflected the pressures many households continue to face. The high cost of living topped the list at 34%, followed by unemployment (22%), corruption (15%) and poor governance (10%).
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Together, the cost of living and unemployment accounted for more than half of all concerns raised by dissatisfied respondents, underscoring the central role the economy is likely to play in the next election cycle.
For many Kenyans, political debates often come down to practical realities: the price of food, transport costs, access to jobs and the ability to meet household expenses. The poll suggests these concerns remain at the forefront of public thinking.
Those who believed the country was moving in the right direction pointed to economic projects, infrastructure development, education reforms and improvements in healthcare as reasons for their optimism.
The findings leave the government with both encouraging and cautionary signals. On one hand, Ruto remains the country's preferred presidential candidate and UDA continues to lead party support. On the other, public frustration over economic conditions appears to be weighing heavily on perceptions of national progress.
For the opposition, the survey highlights a potential opening. While no single challenger currently matches Ruto's support nationally, the data suggests there is a significant pool of voters dissatisfied with the country's direction, particularly on economic and governance issues.
Political analysts, campaign strategists and party leaders are likely to study these findings closely as discussions over alliances, coalition-building and candidate positioning intensify ahead of 2027.
The report was based on a sample of 2,184 men and 1,929 women interviewed across the country. It describes the findings as a snapshot of public opinion during the fieldwork period rather than a definitive forecast of future voting behaviour.
With more than a year to go before Kenyans head to the polls, much can still change. Economic conditions, government performance, opposition unity and emerging political alliances will all influence how voters ultimately make their choices.
For now, the latest survey suggests that William Ruto remains the candidate to beat. Yet it also shows that many Kenyans remain concerned about the state of the economy, making cost of living, jobs and governance issues likely battlegrounds in the long road to the 2027 General Election.