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Kenya, November 12, 2026 - President William Ruto and Nairobi Senator Edwin Sifuna are tied at 31 per cent each in the latest opinion poll on the 2027 presidential race. The Trends and Insights For Africa (TIFA) survey, released on Thursday, places the two ahead of other potential candidates as support for several opposition figures continues to decline.
The findings mark a notable shift in the early contest for State House, with Sifuna recording a sharp rise in popularity over the past year while Ruto has steadily rebuilt support since 2022.
TIFA Research published the results of its latest national survey on Thursday. The poll tracks preferred presidential candidates across six rounds of fieldwork stretching from August 2022 to November 2026.
According to the survey, both Ruto and Sifuna command 31 per cent support. Former Vice-President Kalonzo Musyoka stands at 9 per cent, down from a high of 25 per cent in earlier rounds. Former Interior Cabinet Secretary Fred Matiang’i has dropped to 5 per cent, while former Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua registers 4 per cent.
Fifteen per cent of respondents said they remained undecided, a decline from 20 per cent in the June 2026 round. Another 4 per cent declined to state a preference.
The survey shows Ruto’s support rising from 18 per cent in August 2022 to 24 per cent in May and June 2026 before reaching 31 per cent in the latest reading. Sifuna, who registered zero support in surveys between 2022 and late 2025, climbed to 10 per cent in May, 15 per cent in June, and now matches the President at 31 per cent.
The numbers reflect two parallel trends. On one side, Ruto has gradually recovered ground after a difficult period marked by public discontent over the cost of living, tax measures and governance concerns. On the other, Sifuna has emerged as a prominent opposition voice, particularly among younger voters and in urban centres, capitalising on criticism of the current administration.
Political analysts note that Sifuna’s rise coincides with sustained public debate over economic management, public debt and accountability. His visibility as ODM Secretary-General and Nairobi Senator has given him a national platform at a time when traditional opposition figures have struggled to consolidate support.
Ruto’s recovery, meanwhile, appears linked to targeted outreach, government programmes and a gradual stabilisation of some economic indicators, though significant dissatisfaction remains.
The TIFA results place the 2027 contest in a more competitive position than many earlier surveys suggested. While Ruto has led most polls throughout 2026, the margin has varied widely depending on the pollster and timing. Some earlier surveys put him as high as 45 per cent, while others showed much narrower leads or, in a few cases, a near-tie with emerging challengers.
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Sifuna’s rapid ascent is the clearest new development. From virtually no measurable support at the end of 2025, he has become a joint front-runner within a year. Other opposition figures, including Kalonzo and Matiang’i, have seen their numbers decline over the same period.
The poll also shows a reduction in the undecided category, suggesting that more voters are beginning to form preferences even though the election remains more than eight months away.
The tie raises the political temperature ahead of 2027. For Ruto, the result underlines both the resilience of his support base and the limits of that recovery. For Sifuna, it confirms that he has become a serious national contender rather than a regional or party figure.
Opposition politics remains fragmented. No single challenger has yet pulled clearly ahead of the others, and the combined support for opposition-leaning candidates remains split. Whether that fragmentation continues or begins to consolidate will shape the competitiveness of the race.
Voters will also watch how the main candidates respond to the issues that dominate public concern, particularly the cost of living, jobs, taxation and public service delivery. The next round of polls, expected in early 2027, will indicate whether the current dead heat holds or begins to shift.
Kenya’s next general election is scheduled for August 2027. The presidential contest requires a candidate to win more than 50 per cent of the national vote and at least 25 per cent in more than half of the 47 counties to avoid a runoff.
Opinion polls over the past year have consistently shown Ruto leading, but with varying margins and a large pool of undecided voters. Sifuna’s emergence has added a new dynamic, particularly among younger voters who have shown lower attachment to traditional political formations.
TIFA has tracked presidential preferences across multiple rounds since the 2022 election, providing one of the longer consistent series available.