Kenya, 24 October 2025 - Barely a week after Raila Odinga’s burial, Kenya’s political scene is already shifting. President William Ruto is reportedly exploring the idea of a coalition merger between his United Democratic Alliance (UDA) and the Orange Democratic Movement (ODM), a move that could redraw Kenya’s political map ahead of the 2027 General Election.
At the same time, speculation is mounting over an imminent Cabinet reshuffle to accommodate members of former ruling party KANU, led by Gideon Moi, as Ruto seeks to consolidate a broader coalition and expand his base beyond the Rift Valley and Central Kenya blocs.
Sources within Parliament and State House corridors say the proposed reshuffle could see at least three new Cabinet slots allocated to KANU and other political partners in what insiders describe as “a reward for future loyalty.”
ODM-UDA: Merger or Political Strategy?
While no official statement has been issued, reports from multiple outlets suggest that back- channel discussions between ODM and UDA leaders have intensified since Raila’s passing, with talk of forming a single political front under the Kenya Kwanza umbrella.
UDA strategists believe that bringing ODM on board could stabilise regions that traditionally voted opposition, while ODM insiders see it as a way to protect Raila’s legacy and influence government policy. But not everyone is on board. ODM leaders have been quick to downplay any notion of an outright merger.
“ODM must not be swallowed by UDA,” warned Otiende Amollo, Rarieda MP, speaking to Kenyans.co.ke. “If there is to be cooperation, it must be structured, principled, and respectful of ODM’s identity.”
Cabinet Reshuffle and KANU’s Possible Return
Amid the merger speculation, talk of a major Cabinet reshuffle has rattled government ranks. According to The Star, anxiety is high among current CSs after reports emerged that President Ruto is planning to bring KANU back into government as part of his strategy to build a more inclusive coalition.
KANU chair Gideon Moi, who has kept a low profile since 2022, is said to be open to collaboration. A source close to Moi told The Standard that “KANU is ready to work with any administration that promotes unity and national stability.” Political analysts say this move could symbolically heal old political divisions between the Moi and Odinga families, two dynasties that have defined Kenya’s post-independence politics.
ODM’s Internal Tensions
Within ODM, the talk of cooperation with UDA has exposed deep rifts. Some younger members, like Babu Owino and Edwin Sifuna, argue that ODM should focus on rebuilding from within, while senior leaders such as Oburu Oginga and Hassan Joho appear open to negotiation. “Our focus should be to keep Raila’s vision alive,” Nairobi Senator Edwin Sifuna said earlier this week.
“ODM must evolve, but we cannot trade principles for convenience.” The party’s Central Committee is expected to meet in Kisumu next week to chart the next steps and discuss potential alliances before the 2027 elections.
The Political Calculus
Analysts say Ruto’s recent moves could be part of a long game to neutralise opposition and consolidate power head of 2027. “This is classic pre-election positioning,” said political analyst Prof. Macharia Munene. “If ODM is drawn closer to government, Ruto effectively diffuses resistance and controls the political narrative going into the next polls.”
But critics argue that the strategy risks blurring the lines between government and opposition, eroding Kenya’s democratic checks and balances.
What Lies Ahead
While the merger talk remains speculative, it reflects the new political reality after Raila Odinga’s death: Kenya’s opposition is in transition, and President Ruto is moving swiftly to fill the vacuum. If the planned Cabinet reshuffle includes KANU and other new partners, the political centre of gravity could shift yet again, setting the stage for a redefined contest in 2027. For now, ODM maintains it will not dissolve into UDA, but both sides admit privately that “politics is about timing.”
