By Dawan Africa - -
Somalia – A new study published by the Mogadishu-based “Saldhig Institute” says Al-Shabaab has undergone a significant transformation over the past five years, evolving from a conventional insurgent movement focused on territorial control into what researchers describe as a hybrid organisation combining armed conflict, governance, taxation, technology and social influence to prolong its survival.
The 40-page study, titled Al-Shabaab’s Evolution: Strategic or Forced?, argues that the group’s resilience over nearly two decades has depended less on military strength than on its ability to continuously adapt to changing military, political, economic and social conditions.
Rather than seeking rapid battlefield victories, the report says Al-Shabaab has increasingly embraced what it describes as a “long-war” strategy designed to exhaust opponents over time while preserving its own organisational strength. Researchers conclude that many of the group’s recent changes were initially driven by external pressure, but that Al-Shabaab has gradually converted those pressures into strategic advantages.
According to the study, the organisation has steadily shifted away from relying primarily on capturing and permanently holding territory. Instead, it now combines military operations with governance structures intended to maintain influence even in areas where it lacks a permanent physical presence.
The report says the group has invested heavily in administrative systems, intelligence networks, financial management and communications, enabling it to function as more than an armed movement. It now operates taxation systems, courts and various local administrative mechanisms while simultaneously maintaining military operations across different parts of Somalia.
One of the study’s central findings is that Al-Shabaab’s operational approach has become more selective than in previous years. Researchers argue that the group has increasingly concentrated attacks on military installations, government forces and strategic infrastructure rather than conducting frequent large-scale indiscriminate attacks against civilians.
The report attributes this shift partly to the group’s desire to strengthen its long-term influence among local communities, which it increasingly views as essential sources of intelligence, taxation, recruitment and logistical support.
Military operations, the report says, have also become considerably more sophisticated.
Researchers describe lengthy intelligence-gathering phases preceding major attacks, involving surveillance, reconnaissance, infiltration and detailed planning before operations are launched. Assaults are designed around surprise, careful timing, concentrated firepower and coordinated attacks intended to overwhelm defending forces during the opening stages of combat.
The report also highlights the importance of patience as a military tool. Instead of immediately attacking newly established government positions, Al-Shabaab is said to monitor troop movements, morale, command structures and defensive routines before striking when vulnerabilities emerge.
Technology has become another defining feature of the organisation’s evolution.
The study says Al-Shabaab increasingly relies on mobile communications, digital financial systems and internet-based tools to coordinate operations, manage finances and administer territories under its influence. Technology is presented not as an auxiliary capability but as an essential component connecting military, financial and administrative activities.
Researchers also note that the group has experimented with commercially available drones, although attempts to weaponise them have reportedly achieved only limited success. The report adds that Al-Shabaab continues seeking more advanced technological capabilities through emerging regional relationships.
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Intelligence gathering remains one of the organisation’s greatest strengths, according to the study.
Rather than relying solely on technology, researchers argue that Al-Shabaab combines digital tools with extensive human intelligence networks that penetrate communities, businesses and state institutions. This integration of technology and human sources enables the group to gather detailed information while creating uncertainty and mistrust among its adversaries.
The report also examines how the organisation has strengthened its governance structures.
Beyond military operations, Al-Shabaab has expanded systems covering taxation, dispute resolution, education, healthcare and basic infrastructure. While the quality and scale of these services vary considerably, researchers argue that they serve a broader strategic purpose by reinforcing the group’s claim to legitimacy in areas where state institutions remain weak or absent.
Courts, in particular, are described as one of the organisation’s most effective governance tools because they often resolve disputes more quickly than formal judicial institutions.
Researchers also say the group has incorporated clan elders and religious leaders into governance arrangements through advisory councils intended to strengthen local legitimacy, manage disputes and maintain influence within communities. These structures mirror Somalia’s longstanding reliance on customary and religious authority, allowing the organisation to present itself as a locally rooted administration rather than solely an armed movement.
The study argues that Al-Shabaab’s relationship with local communities has become increasingly complex.
Where fear once dominated, researchers now describe a combination of coercion, service provision, ideological messaging and social integration. Chronic poverty, unemployment and repeated climate-related crises have created conditions that lower recruitment barriers while enabling the group to expand its influence among vulnerable populations.
The report also places recent military developments within the broader context of Somalia’s security landscape.
It identifies several major factors that have shaped Al-Shabaab’s recent evolution, including changes in African Union peace missions, the Somali government’s 2022 military offensive supported by local community forces, increased US airstrikes and Turkish air operations, as well as broader regional dynamics.
According to the study, these developments forced the organisation to reassess its methods and adapt its operational approach rather than abandon its long-term objectives.
Looking ahead, the report concludes that Al-Shabaab remains highly adaptable and should no longer be viewed simply as a militant group carrying out isolated attacks.
Instead, researchers describe it as an organisation that integrates insurgency, governance, revenue collection, judicial functions, media operations and social influence into a single strategic framework designed to ensure long-term survival.
The study argues that defeating such an organisation will require more than military pressure alone. It suggests that understanding how Al-Shabaab continuously adapts to political, military and social developments is essential for developing more effective responses to Somalia’s enduring security challenges.
Ultimately, the report concludes that the group’s future trajectory will depend on its ability to continue adapting to changing conditions inside Somalia and across the wider region, while its opponents face the challenge of matching that adaptability with sustained political, security and governance reforms.