By Abdullahi Ali Noor(Ameriko) - pharmaceutical regulatory expert with over 25 years of corporate leadership and experience in European/Regulatory.
“Like the blades of a pair of scissors, opposing political forces often appear to move against one another. Yet it is in their intersection—not their separation—that the direction of power is ultimately determined”.
Recent developments in Mogadishu raise an important question: if the past few days represented a phase of political attrition, are Somalia’s government and opposition now entering a stage of manoeuvring?
Politics, much like warfare, is rarely driven by a single tactic. A useful analogy is that of a pair of scissors. One blade may be rough and the other smooth, yet neither can cut on its own. Only when both blades meet does the scissors become effective. A knife, by contrast, cuts with a single edge and a single motion. Successful political actors understand that lasting results often require both attrition and manoeuvre.
Attrition in politics resembles its military counterpart. It involves moving quickly to overwhelm, exhaust, and weaken the opposing side. The German concept of Blitzkrieg during World War II remains one of the most well-known examples of speed being used to achieve decisive political and military outcomes.
Manoeuvring, on the other hand, is a slower and more calculated approach. Rather than relying on speed and force, it seeks to wear down opponents over time by eroding their political momentum, confidence, and strategic options. In established democracies, unexpected coalitions, parliamentary realignments, and snap elections are common tools of political manoeuvre. In developing countries, constitutional amendments, political bargaining, and clan-based calculations often serve similar purposes.
Viewed through this lens, Somalia’s current political environment suggests that the federal government has been employing both attrition and manoeuvring, while much of the opposition has focused primarily on manoeuvring. Several factors may explain this imbalance. The government benefits from the advantages of incumbency and, to a significant extent, from public support for stability. After decades of conflict, many Somalis have little appetite for renewed political confrontation or armed struggles. For much of the public, preserving relative peace in Mogadishu remains a priority.
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Yet beneath the surface, the opposition itself appears far from united. Differences remain over both the nature of the next government and the strategy required to challenge the current administration. As is often the case in Somali politics, discussions concerning clan interests, power-sharing arrangements, and electoral calculations continue behind closed doors. Political alliances are formed, reassessed, and reconfigured almost daily.
Recent history, however, offers a cautionary lesson. Political calculations that appear logical on paper do not always translate into success in Somalia’s complex political landscape. The phenomenon often referred to as Washamsi has repeatedly demonstrated the unpredictability of Somali politics and the limits of conventional assumptions.
At the same time, the government should not become complacent. Internal spoilers remain a risk, and there is always the danger of decision-makers being presented with overly optimistic assessments of realities on the ground. Effective governance requires a clear understanding of both opportunities and vulnerabilities.
Ultimately, the responsibility extends beyond political elites. Somali citizens must carefully assess the competing visions and ambitions of those seeking power. They must draw lessons from the country’s turbulent past and remain committed to peace, stability, and accountable governance. In periods of both attrition and manoeuvring, public vigilance remains one of the strongest safeguards against political miscalculation.
PS: Keep an eye on external factors and the traditional merchants of chaos. Somalia’s political trajectory is rarely shaped by domestic actors alone, and history shows that the discovery of strategic assets or natural resources often attracts interests that do not necessarily align with the country’s long-term stability and prosperity.
* Dr Abdullahi Ali Noor(Ameriko) is a pharmaceutical regulatory expert with over 25 years of corporate leadership and experience in European/Regulatory. He writes about civic education.
* The views expressed in this article are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of the Dawan Africa platform.