By Abdiaziz Gadaf - Somali writer and researcher whose work focuses on geopolitical issues in the Horn of Africa and on regional and international developments.
"The division produced no winner: both sides lost opportunities for stability and integration, while Somali society paid the greatest price for three decades." Abdiaziz Gadaf
On May 18, 1991, the self-declared republic of Somaliland unilaterally declared its separation from the Somali Republic, taking advantage of the collapse of the central government and the political and security vacuum that followed, as well as clan divisions and armed conflicts that spread across large parts of southern Somalia.
Since then, Somalia and the breakaway territory have entered a prolonged period of dispute marked by political division and divergent visions of the state's future. Numerous attempts at dialogue and negotiation have taken place, but none has produced a final settlement to the complex disagreement between them.
The dispute between Mogadishu and Hargeisa is no longer merely a political disagreement or a constitutional question that can be resolved in one or two rounds of negotiations. It has become an existential issue with intertwined political, security, economic, regional and international dimensions.
While Somaliland seeks to consolidate its political project and secure full international recognition, the Somali government insists on the country's unity, sovereignty and territorial integrity. This has made the issue one of the most complicated in the Horn of Africa.
Over the past three decades, local, regional and international initiatives have sought to bring the two sides closer. Yet they have failed to yield a settlement or achieve meaningful success because the parties remain far apart over the nature of the issue and how it should be resolved.
In recent years, the dispute has acquired even more complex regional and international dimensions amid growing strategic interest in the Horn of Africa, the Red Sea and the Gulf of Aden, along with the deeper involvement of regional and international powers.
This became particularly clear in the dispute that followed the memorandum of understanding signed by Ethiopia and Somaliland in January 2024.
Somalia and Ethiopia later affirmed respect for Somalia's sovereignty, unity and territorial integrity in the Ankara Declaration issued in December 2024.
After more than three decades, the same question remains: how much has this continuing dispute cost, and what has Somali society as a whole lost because of the division?
History is measured not only by political gains, but also by lost economic opportunities, depleted resources, stalled projects and missed chances for integration, investment, development and a shared future.
Against that background, this commentary assesses the cost of more than three decades of dispute. It reviews the losses borne separately by Somalia and Somaliland, examines the central paradoxes of their conflict and considers the opportunities that might have been realised had the two sides reached a more stable and cooperative political arrangement.
The Paradoxes of the Somalia Somaliland Dispute
The past three decades have shown that the dispute between Somalia and Somaliland has followed a path on which everyone has paid a heavy price, although the nature, objectives and cost have differed from one side to the other. Somalia lost much of the potential offered by national unity and political and economic integration, and spent years managing the consequences of division. Somaliland, meanwhile, bore substantial political, economic and development costs because its political and legal status remained unresolved.
The central paradox lies in the different objectives pursued by each side. Somalia has engaged in this struggle chiefly to preserve the unity, sovereignty and territorial integrity of the state. To a large extent, it has maintained the legal and international framework of a unified Somali state.
Somaliland, by contrast, has spent the past three decades pursuing a political and diplomatic campaign for international recognition as an independent state. That objective has not been achieved, and its political and legal status remains disputed.
Beyond any calculation of winners and losers, the wider outcome is that the dispute has deprived both sides, and Somali society as a whole, of opportunities that could have been far greater in trade, investment, security, infrastructure and human development. In the end, every part of Somali society has suffered shared losses.
Somalia's Losses in the Dispute with Somaliland
The losses and missed opportunities Somalia has incurred during more than three decades of disagreement over Somaliland have not been confined to politics. They also extend to diplomacy, security, the economy and society. The most significant can be summarised as follows.
Political and Diplomatic Losses
The most prominent loss has been the continuing dispute over national unity and sovereignty, which has consumed a substantial share of Somalia's political and diplomatic effort as it manages the issue and defends its position regionally and internationally.
The issue also acquired sharper geopolitical dimensions after Somaliland signed a memorandum of understanding with Ethiopia in 2024 and amid subsequent regional developments, including Israel's recognition of the territory in December 2025. This tied the dispute more closely to regional and international competition in the Horn of Africa and the Red Sea.
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Security and Strategic Losses
The continuing division has complicated efforts to build an integrated national security system, particularly in the northern and disputed areas. Some of these locations have experienced tensions and armed conflict with substantial security and humanitarian costs.
The conflict in Las Anod offered a stark example. The United Nations documented hundreds of civilian casualties and large-scale displacement, along with damage to infrastructure and civilian facilities.
Economic and Commercial Losses
The division has squandered important opportunities for economic and commercial integration across the Somali territories. It has weakened prospects for building a more connected market and for drawing shared benefits from ports, trade, investment, transport, logistics, livestock and fisheries.
The loss therefore extends beyond resources that remain undeveloped. It also includes the cost of missed economic and development opportunities and joint projects that could have improved people's lives and expanded commercial activity.
Human and Social Losses
The conflicts and tensions have had direct and profound consequences for the population, including deaths, family displacement and disruption to essential services, education and infrastructure. They have also narrowed employment prospects and opportunities for economic development.
Young people have been particularly affected. Political and economic conditions have driven many to migrate in search of a better future. Some took irregular and dangerous routes that ended in humanitarian tragedies, with thousands of young people losing their lives during migration journeys.
Somaliland and the Cost of the Dispute
Although Somaliland has built institutions and a local administration over the past three decades, it has not achieved its principal political objective. Its international status has remained unresolved for more than 30 years.
This has produced a range of losses and missed opportunities. Chief among them is the continuing limitation of Somaliland's political and legal standing internationally, which restricts its participation in international institutions and mechanisms and makes it difficult to establish full diplomatic relations with the rest of the world. The pursuit of recognition has also consumed a substantial share of its political and diplomatic effort over the decades.
The same status has affected the economy and investment. It has created obstacles to attracting international capital and achieving full integration into global financial and trading systems. It has also limited opportunities for economic integration with the rest of the Somali territories and for participation in a wider market and joint projects in trade, transport, energy and infrastructure.
The economic loss, therefore, is not confined to actual outcomes. It also includes opportunities that might have arisen through the integration of markets, resources and trade corridors.
At the security and strategic level, recurring tensions and conflicts, particularly in the Sool region and surrounding areas, have imposed military and security burdens, drained resources and weakened the environment for development and stability.
The continuing political disagreement with Mogadishu has made it difficult to develop comprehensive joint security arrangements. It has left some areas exposed to tension and instability, affecting population movement, economic activity and local development.
At the humanitarian and social level, conflicts and tensions have caused casualties, displacement and disruption to services and facilities, with direct and indirect effects on education, health and economic activity.
Continuing political and economic uncertainty has also reduced opportunities for young people and pushed some to seek better prospects abroad. Somaliland's losses over the past three decades are therefore not limited to the failure to resolve its political status. They also encompass missed opportunities in investment, trade, development, security and economic and social integration.
Conclusion
After more than three decades of division, the outcome of the dispute between Somalia and Somaliland cannot be reduced to a simple calculation of profit and loss. Somalia has borne political, security and economic costs as the division continued. Somaliland, meanwhile, has faced major challenges because its international political status remains unresolved, with resulting constraints and costs in development and in economic and diplomatic relations.
Amid all this, Somali society has borne the human and development costs of displacement, conflict and lost opportunities for development, investment and integration.
The future, however, should not remain hostage to the calculations of past decades. The historical, cultural, religious and geographical ties among Somalis, together with their shared interests, can provide a foundation for a more stable and cooperative path.
After years in which energy and opportunity have been drained away, the need is to move from managing the disagreement to addressing its roots, and from the logic of conflict to dialogue and understanding. Such a shift could open the way to a partnership that serves people and supports stability and development.
The true value of any future settlement will be measured not only by the disputes it ends, but also by the new opportunities it creates for peace, development and a shared future.
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Abdiaziz Gadaf is a Somali writer and researcher whose work focuses on geopolitical issues in the Horn of Africa and on regional and international developments.
The views expressed in this article are the author's and do not necessarily reflect the editorial position of Dawan Africa.