Opinion: How Can Somalia Bridge Its Climate Finance Gap at COP31?

“Somalia needs predictable climate finance, stronger institutions, and bankable investments that turn national priorities into lasting resilience for vulnerable communities.” Said Abdirizak Ali

As world leaders, negotiators, development partners, and investors gather in Antalya for COP31, Somalia faces a pivotal moment.

The country has an opportunity to make a compelling case: climate finance must reach frontline communities bearing the brunt of environmental breakdown, despite existing institutional constraints and limited fiscal space.

For these communities, predictable finance can mean the difference between recovering from the next shock and losing productive assets permanently.

Somalia stands at the epicenter of climate vulnerability. Recurrent droughts, catastrophic flooding, land degradation, rising temperatures, and water scarcity threaten food security, livelihoods, infrastructure, and economic stability.

Pastoralists, farmers, coastal communities, women, youth, and displaced households bear the heaviest burden. Yet Somalia contributes only a negligible share of global greenhouse gas emissions. This imbalance makes bridging the financing gap not merely an economic objective, but an imperative of climate justice.

The Scale of the Financing Gap#

Somalia’s Third Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC 3.0), submitted in 2025, targets a 34 percent reduction in greenhouse gas emissions by 2035 relative to a business-as-usual trajectory.

It also outlines adaptation priorities across essential sectors. UNDP estimates that implementing Somalia’s climate priorities requires approximately US$11.5 billion through 2035, including US$6.33 billion for adaptation alone.

These are planning requirements, not funding already secured. The gap between identified needs and approved, disbursed resources remains a structural barrier.

Delays in financing can mean lost livelihoods, higher humanitarian costs, and slower economic recovery. It is essential to distinguish pledges from financing that actually reaches projects and delivers services.

Somalia’s challenge extends beyond the volume of available money. Institutions must prepare credible proposals, meet funding requirements, coordinate implementation, manage risks, and track results transparently.

NDC 3.0 acknowledges limited fiscal space and institutional constraints. The document also notes that Somalia lacks a Green Climate Fund (GCF) Direct Access Entity, leaving some funding dependent on internationally accredited partners. Strengthening institutions should therefore be viewed as part of climate investment, not an administrative afterthought.

Somalia must therefore move beyond general appeals for emergency assistance and present a practical financing strategy built on costed projects, fiduciary safeguards, clear institutional mandates, and long-term maintenance plans.

Five Priorities to Bridge the Gap#

1. Turn Climate Plans into Bankable Investments

Somalia has established policy foundations through NDC 3.0 and its National Adaptation Plan process. The next step is a sequenced pipeline of investable projects.

The Federal Government, Federal Member States, and partners should prepare feasibility studies, risk assessments, realistic budgets, and measurable outcomes for water management, climate-smart agriculture, livestock infrastructure, renewable energy, and urban flood protection. Every project should demonstrate how its assets will be operated and maintained.

2. Improve Direct Access to International Climate Funds

Accessing the GCF and Adaptation Fund requires technical capacity and compliance with accreditation standards. A dedicated national technical support mechanism could strengthen Somali public institutions, civil society, and domestic enterprises.

Until national accreditation is achieved, internationally accredited entities should work through transparent partnerships that progressively transfer technical expertise, project-management responsibilities, and governance capacity to Somali institutions.

3. Mobilize Somali Banks and Private Capital

International grants alone cannot meet a multibillion-dollar shortfall. Domestic banks, microfinance institutions, mobile network operators, businesses, and diaspora investors can provide capital and implementation capacity.

Working at the intersection of banking, development partnerships, and resilience finance, I see an important role for local commercial institutions. Somalia needs practical green-lending guidelines, environmental and social risk screening, technical assistance, and co-investment opportunities.

Banks cannot replace grants for essential public goods, but they can finance resilient agriculture, commercial solar power, efficient irrigation, and green enterprises.

4. Use Blended Finance and Risk Sharing

Perceived and actual risks in fragile settings often discourage conventional investors. Blended finance can combine grants, concessional loans, guarantees, and private investment to reduce risk and mobilize capital.

Development finance institutions and climate funds should partner with qualified Somali banks on first-loss facilities, partial credit guarantees, and technical assistance.

Sharia-compliant instruments, including Murabaha, Ijarah, Salam, Musharaka, and Mudaraba, can also support machinery, renewable-energy systems, and agricultural assets where appropriately structured.

These arrangements require transparent pricing, appropriate safeguards, and a careful assessment of who ultimately bears the risk.