By Abdirizak Omar Mohamed - Member of the Somali Federal Parliament and former Minister of Petroleum.
“Somalia stands at a decisive political moment, where the question of how leaders are chosen is no longer procedural but existential. The choice between indirect and direct elections will shape not only governance, but the very legitimacy and future direction of the Somali state”.
For over two decades, Somalia has struggled with a series of instability resulting from failure to eliminate Al-Shabaab terrorist group affiliated with Al-Qaeda. Successive Somali governments have nonetheless achieved some tangible results, such as removing Al-Shabaab from vast areas of the country, thereby effectively reducing insecurity in large urban centers such as Mogadishu, where IED attacks decreased significantly in 2025 and 2026.
Similarly, other notable achievements by the government included Somalia’s admission to the East African Community, obtaining the lifting of the UN Security Council arms embargo against Somalia and canceling Somalia's debt owed to International Financial Institutions by demonstrating prudent fiscal discipline and effective public finance management.
On the state-building front, the federal government strengthened governance institutions and increased the collection of domestic revenues and completed the review of the Constitution. This series of successes signifies that Somalia is entering a transitional period to overcome state fragility.
Nonetheless, despite these positive developments, Somalia faced immense risks to its political independence and sovereignty from external actors and their regional and internal proxies. Yet internal political elites and international actors consider the peaceful conduct of indirect elections during each four- or five-year election cycle as worthy of their praise.
It is essential to comprehend the minimalist approach to understanding peaceful transitions of power. Although the only logical rationale offered by local actors for supporting indirect elections is a direct correlation between peaceful transfer of power and indirect election, external actors perceive painting a positive image of indirect elections in Somalia and disseminating this image to their respective capitals and/or international/regional headquarters as being paramount to their own interests.
The notion that indirect elections are the only type of electoral model capable of producing peaceful transitions of power in Somalia is inherently misleading, as it reflects an overly narrow view of peace solely as the absence of violence during election time.
Universal suffrage-based direct elections contribute to legitimacy for elected governments and serve the purpose of advancing state-building goals. Conversely, elected governments derived through indirect elections are generally considered illegitimate.
Against this backdrop, the core thesis of this article is that indirect elections hinder good governance and democratization efforts that are foundational elements for achieving state-building objectives.
In Somalia, the clan-based nature of indirect elections represents an elite interest-driven system that is anti-democratic and unconstitutional, providing fertile grounds for corrupt practices. As such, now is the right moment for the federal government to abandon its reliance upon clan-based indirect elections and support ONE PERSON ONE VOTE direct elections.
Historical Context
Clan-based power sharing was introduced during the reconciliation conference in Arta, Djibouti, in 2000. Subsequently, clan-based indirect election was perceived as a solution to the clan quagmire of forming a new government using the 4.5 clan-based power sharing formula.
In 2015, the federal government passed legislation relevant to conducting direct elections. Specifically -- the federal government enacted electoral laws and party laws, thereby creating the National Independent Election Commission (NIEC). Unfortunately, NIEC did not have sufficient time to register voters and conduct one person one vote direct elections.
Consequently, it was decided to continue with indirect elections -- but to create an enhanced clan-elder selection model whereby 51 clan delegates would be responsible for electing each member of the federal parliament.
Utilizing this enhanced indirect election model, a total of 14,025 clan electoral delegates elected 275 members of the federal parliament. While this enhanced model represented an improvement over the previously used model whereby 135 clan elders selected 275 members of the federal parliament -- this new model still lacked legitimacy in the eyes of many Somalis.
In 2021, after much back-and-forth negotiations -- it was determined that an enhanced version of the electoral model could be developed whereby 101 clan delegates would elect each member of the federal parliament. Therefore, in 2022, a new electoral model was adopted wherein 27,775 clan delegates elected 275 members of the federal parliament.
By comparison -- Somalia had historically utilized ONE PERSON ONE VOTE direct elections with subsequent transfers of power occurring peacefully. Evidently, supporters of clan-based indirect elections suffer from both a trust deficit and a memory loss related to Somalia's electoral history. Prior to adopting clan-based indirect elections -- Somalia had utilized ONE PERSON ONE VOTE direct elections in 1964, 1967 and 1969, with multiple political parties participating in each election.
Notably, no violent clashes occurred during these election cycles. Clearly, if one accepts that good governance and democratization are fundamental aspects of state building -- it follows that internal Somali elites and international actors should reject clan-based indirect elections that have previously deprived citizens of their ability to elect their representatives.
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Opposing Positions on the Election Model
Throughout its tenure -- the position of the government regarding an acceptable electoral model has remained clear and consistent. Specifically, the government has continuously expressed its intent to hold direct elections across Somalia.
The President views ensuring citizens' fundamental rights to choose their representatives as an obligation derived directly from adherence to the supreme law of Somalia, namely, its constitution. Further -- the government believes that it is solely responsible for enforcing adherence with the supreme law of the nation.
Since assuming office, the government has taken concrete steps toward implementing direct elections in Somalia. To date -- the government has created the National Independent Electoral & Boundaries Commission (NIEBC), which has already completed voter registration processes and managed Banadir Region Local Council Elections in December 2025.
Moreover, NIEBC has also demonstrated flexibility towards opposition groups by extending deadlines for registering political parties. Conversely, although the government engaged with opposition groups through multiple rounds of inclusive national dialogue intended to arrive at mutually agreeable electoral models, no alternative electoral models were proposed by opposition groups except an absolute rejection of Constitutionally mandated one person one vote direct elections.
In stark contrast to the position articulated by the government, opposition groups have demanded indirect elections. Paradoxically, the opposition groups also reject indirect elections based on an electoral model that is similar to the 2022 electoral model, while fiercely objecting to direct elections consistent with universal suffrage principles embodied in one person one vote. Their logic is simply to compete against each other and to buy the Presidency through indirect elections.
Conclusion
Based upon positions articulated by each side regarding whether an acceptable electoral model exists, reaching an agreement appears unlikely because each side holds diametrically opposed positions. Specifically, opposition groups believe that applying pressure through threats and inciting violence against the government will ultimately force it to reverse its position of supporting direct election.
More directly stated: the Federal Government will choose not to concede to pressures exerted by de facto opposition groups that lack legitimacy to challenge the government.
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*Abdirizak Omar Mohamed, is a Member of the Somali Federal Parliament and former Minister of Petroleum.
*The opinions expressed in this article are those of the writer and do not necessarily reflect the views of Dawan Africa.