By Mohamed Okash - Founding Director, Institute of Climate and Environment, SIMAD University
“Climate disasters are inevitable, but humanitarian catastrophes are not. Somalia’s future depends on acting together before the next flood, not after it.” — Mohamed Okash
Scientists warn that a potentially powerful El Niño could bring above-average rainfall and severe flooding across the Horn of Africa later this year. Somalia has endured repeated climate disasters for decades, but its greatest challenge is no longer predicting them—it is transforming hard-earned lessons into collective climate action before disaster strikes.
Climate scientists have warned that a potentially strong El Niño could develop later this year, increasing the likelihood of above-average rainfall across the Horn of Africa. While the exact intensity and impacts will become clearer in the coming months, Somalia cannot afford to treat these forecasts as routine weather updates. They are an early warning of risks the country knows all too well.
The devastating 2023 Deyr floods affected nearly 2.5 million people, displaced more than 1.2 million, claimed 188 lives, and caused an estimated US$176 million in damages and economic losses, with recovery needs exceeding US$230 million. Those figures illustrate not only the destructive power of climate extremes but also the high cost of recurring disasters.
Yet Somalia's greatest climate challenge is no longer a lack of scientific knowledge. Weather forecasting has improved significantly through institutions such as ICPAC, FAO SWALIM and the World Meteorological Organization.
The country has experienced major El Niño events in 1997–98, 2006, 2015–16 and 2023, each providing painful lessons about flood risks, displacement, food insecurity and infrastructure failure. Somalia has accumulated decades of experience, strengthened climate policies and developed increasingly sophisticated early warning systems.
The uncomfortable truth is that disasters continue to occur not because Somalia lacks information, but because climate risks are still not matched by coordinated action and funding among different stakeholders.
Climate hazards become humanitarian disasters when heavy rainfall intersects with fragile infrastructure, degraded ecosystems, rapid urbanisation, weak land-use planning and limited investment in resilience.
Floods along the Juba and Shabelle rivers continue to destroy homes, roads, schools, irrigation systems and health facilities because structural vulnerabilities remain largely unchanged.
Somalia's 2023 Rapid Post-Disaster Needs Assessment concluded that Somalia's disaster management system remains heavily focused on emergency response, while preparedness, prevention and disaster risk reduction receive comparatively less attention. It calls instead for an integrated, collaborative and all-of-society approach that strengthens institutions, empowers communities and embeds resilience into long-term development planning.
This shift is essential because humanitarian assistance, while indispensable for saving lives, cannot become Somalia's long-term climate strategy. Encouragingly, Somalia is already moving in this direction.
At the Country Humanitarian Forum convened by the Somali Disaster Management Agency (SoDMA) in June 2026, government, humanitarian agencies, donors, civil society, the private sector and other partners committed to shifting from reactive humanitarian response towards preparedness, anticipatory action, early warning and resilience-building.
The Institute of Climate and Environment's policy paper, Anticipating El Niño: Building Climate Resilience and Economic Stability in Somalia, argued that reducing Somalia's flood risk requires more than responding to extreme weather.
It requires tackling the underlying drivers of vulnerability—including weak multisectoral coordination, degraded river systems, unplanned urbanisation and fragmented coordination—through whole-of-society partnerships and long-term resilience investments. The anticipated Super El Niño should be the catalyst for implementing, not revisiting, these priorities.
Climate resilience cannot be delivered by government alone. It requires a whole-of-society approach. Federal and State governments must integrate climate risk into development planning and budgeting, strengthen disaster risk governance and invest in resilient infrastructure.
District authorities should improve urban planning, drainage systems and preparedness in flood-prone communities.
Humanitarian organisations need to complement emergency assistance with greater investment in anticipatory action and locally led adaptation. Development partners should expand long-term resilience financing alongside humanitarian support.
Equally important is the role of communities themselves. Research by Ground Truth Solutions shows that people consistently prioritise flood protection infrastructure, irrigation systems, resilient livelihoods and trusted early warning systems over repeated short-term relief.
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These findings reinforce an important lesson that resilience cannot be designed in conference rooms alone, but it must be co-created with the people who live with climate risks every day.
The private sector also has a far greater role to play than is often recognised. Telecommunications companies can strengthen early warning dissemination. Financial institutions can expand climate-risk financing and insurance to farmers and rural communities.
Renewable energy companies can improve energy security during disasters, while academia should educate, raise awareness, and influence policy and practice through advocacy, research and capacity building.
The Somali diaspora represents another critical but underutilised source of resilience. Beyond remittances, diaspora professionals contribute technical expertise, entrepreneurship, investment and international networks that can accelerate climate innovation, strengthen institutions and mobilise new sources of finance beyond household support.
Building resilience should therefore become a shared national project that connects government, communities, researchers, humanitarian agencies, businesses, civil society, development partners and the diaspora around a common purpose.
This approach will not only mitigate the potential climate crisis from El Niño but will also serve as a sustainable investment for climate adaptation which aligns with national climate goals to protect the environment and reduce the vulnerabilities of climatic shocks.
Somalia has already adopted important policy frameworks, including its National Adaptation Plan (NAP), the Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs), and National Transformation Plan (NTP 2025–2029), all of which recognise climate resilience as central to socioeconomic transformation and sustainable development.
The challenge is no longer producing policies; it is implementing them through stronger institutions, sustained financing and genuine partnerships.
The next El Niño will undoubtedly test Somalia's resilience once again. But it can also become a turning point. Climate disasters may be inevitable in a warming world but humanitarian catastrophes are not.
The true measure of preparedness will not be how much aid arrives after floodwaters rise, but how effectively communities work together to ensure that fewer lives, livelihoods and futures are swept away in the first place.
* Mohamed Okash is the Founding Director of the Institute of Climate and Environment at SIMAD University. He is also a member of the World Economic Forum’s Global Future Council on Climate and Nature Governance.
* The opinions expressed in this article are those of the writer and do not necessarily reflect the views of Dawan Africa.