By Magdalene Wanja - Reporter
Kenya, April 28, 2026 - Kenya’s avocado industry is on course for continued growth in 2026, with production projected to hit roughly 727,000 metric tons, rising from about 694,000 metric tons recorded in 2025.
The expected 4.8 percent increase, reported by the United States Department of Agriculture Foreign Agricultural Service, underscores what the agency describes as “continued expansion in planted area and improved orchard management practices.”
Export volumes are forecast to expand at an even quicker pace, climbing 7.4 percent to 130,000 metric tons, reflecting stronger international demand. The United States Department of Agriculture Foreign Agricultural Service notes that exports are “expected to grow on account of rising demand in key markets and improved compliance with quality standards.”
Analysts link this upward trend to Kenya’s expanding footprint in the global avocado trade, supported by firm demand in Europe and increasing interest from newer destinations.
At the farm level, the growth reflects a broader shift in cropping patterns. Increasingly, growers are moving away from traditional staples such as tea and maize and turning to avocados, lured by more attractive and predictable returns. This transition is being reinforced by the availability of improved planting materials and the spread of avocado cultivation into previously underutilized regions.
According to the USDA, the sector’s expansion is being driven in part by “increased plantings in non-traditional growing areas and improved access to quality planting materials,” alongside stronger export demand.
The positive outlook comes after a turbulent 2025 season, when exports were briefly suspended following concerns about immature fruit reaching international buyers.
In response, the Agriculture and Food Authority introduced stricter oversight measures, including compulsory inspections at packhouses and a ban on transporting avocados in open trucks.
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Regulators say the tighter rules are designed to ensure only mature, export-quality fruit enters the supply chain, safeguarding Kenya’s reputation in competitive global markets.
Meanwhile, competition is intensifying across the region. South Africa is expected to boost its avocado exports by 15.8 percent to 88,000 tons in 2026, driven by maturing orchards.
Globally, demand for avocados continues to surge. Projections from Transparency Market Research show the market could reach $47.5 billion by 2035, underpinned by shifting consumer preferences and growing awareness of the fruit’s health benefits.
Europe remains the leading destination for African avocados, particularly the Netherlands, France, and Spain, although exporters are increasingly targeting markets in China and the Middle East to diversify risk.
The Agriculture and Food Authority maintains that strict enforcement of quality standards will be key to sustaining this growth, as the country seeks to balance rising output with the need to protect its standing in international trade.