By Benadeta Mwaura - Reporter
Kenya, 25 June 2026 - Kenya's exports to the United Arab Emirates (UAE) have fallen to their lowest level in nearly three years as prolonged instability in the Middle East continues to disrupt trade flows, increase shipping costs, and weigh on demand in one of Kenya's most important export markets.
The decline comes against the backdrop of the ongoing conflict involving the United States and Iran, which has repeatedly disrupted maritime transport through the Gulf region and the strategic Strait of Hormuz, a key global shipping corridor through which nearly a fifth of the world's oil supplies normally pass.
The UAE has emerged as Kenya's largest trading partner in the Gulf region over the past decade, serving as both a destination market and a major re-export hub for Kenyan products including tea, coffee, horticultural produce, meat, flowers, and manufactured goods.
However, months of conflict have exposed the vulnerability of Kenya's trade links with the Middle East. Earlier estimates indicated that more than KSh700 billion worth of Kenya's trade with Gulf countries was at risk as shipping disruptions, rising insurance premiums, and logistical bottlenecks affected the movement of goods across the region.
Industry players say the impact has been particularly severe for agricultural exporters who depend on reliable shipping schedules to move perishable products to Gulf markets.
The challenges have already been felt across Kenya's tea industry. Millions of kilograms of tea accumulated in warehouses at the Port of Mombasa after shipping routes serving Middle Eastern markets were disrupted, with traders reporting losses running into millions of dollars every week.
The UAE alone accounted for more than KSh101 billion worth of Kenyan exports in 2024, making it the country's largest export destination in the Middle East. The country also imports significant volumes of goods from the UAE, including petroleum products, machinery, electronics, and industrial supplies.
Trade analysts note that while some stability has recently returned following a temporary agreement between Washington and Tehran, the effects of the conflict continue to ripple through global supply chains.
Middle Eastern producers have significantly increased crude exports following the reopening of parts of the Strait of Hormuz and the easing of some restrictions on Iranian oil sales. The surge in supply has pushed global crude prices lower and altered traditional trade routes.
The International Energy Agency (IEA) also reported that UAE oil exports have recovered to approximately 85 percent of their pre-conflict levels after the Gulf nation adopted alternative shipping routes and logistical measures to bypass disruptions.
Despite these improvements, businesses remain cautious.
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Economic data from the UAE shows that the conflict has slowed growth in the country's non-oil private sector, with shipping disruptions, reduced tourism activity, and weaker foreign demand affecting business performance.
Subdued economic activity in the Gulf could continue to dampen demand for imports from trading partners such as Kenya.
For Kenya, the broader concern extends beyond exports.
The conflict has exposed the country's dependence on Gulf shipping lanes for fuel imports under the government-to-government petroleum supply arrangement involving major Gulf oil companies. Earlier in the conflict, Kenyan authorities closely monitored fuel shipments amid fears that disruptions could affect domestic supply and trigger price increases.
The economic consequences have already begun to reflect in growth forecasts. International institutions have warned that geopolitical tensions, volatile commodity prices, and supply chain disruptions remain key risks to Kenya's economic outlook.
While the recent easing of tensions between the US and Iran has offered hope that trade flows could gradually normalize, exporters remain wary of renewed disruptions.
For Kenyan businesses, the latest decline in exports to the UAE serves as a reminder of how geopolitical conflicts thousands of kilometers away can quickly reverberate through local economies, affecting farmers, manufacturers, logistics firms, and foreign exchange earnings alike.
As trade routes slowly recover and Gulf economies stabilize, industry stakeholders will be watching closely to see whether Kenya's exports can regain momentum in the second half of the year or whether the effects of the conflict will continue to weigh on one of the country's most valuable export corridors.
Kenya Exports to UAE Hit 33-Month Low as Middle East Conflict Disrupts Trade Routes
Subdued economic activity in the Gulf could continue to dampen demand for imports from trading partners such as Kenya.