By Benadeta Mwaura - Reporter
Kenya, May 12, 2026 - The conflict involving the United States, Israel, and Iran is no longer just a military confrontation, it is rapidly evolving into a global power struggle, with China now sitting at the center of what happens next.
Hopes for a ceasefire are fading fast after Donald Trump dismissed Iran’s latest proposal, calling it “garbage” and warning that the fragile truce is now “on life support.”
This signals a hardening of positions on both sides, with Iran demanding sweeping concessions, from lifting sanctions to control over key waterways, while the U.S. insists on halting hostilities before addressing deeper issues like nuclear activity.
At the heart of this escalation is control of the Strait of Hormuz, a vital artery for global energy. Disruptions there have already pushed oil prices above $100 per barrel and sharply reduced global supply, underscoring how quickly a regional war can become a global economic crisis.
China’s role is both strategic and complicated.
Beijing remains Iran’s largest oil customer and a critical economic lifeline, importing vast amounts of Iranian crude even under sanctions.
This relationship has made China indispensable, not as a combatant, but as a power broker. However, tensions are rising sharply between Washington and Beijing. The U.S. has imposed fresh sanctions targeting companies and individuals accused of facilitating Iranian oil shipments to China, in a direct attempt to cut off Tehran’s financial lifelines.
At the same time, China has pushed back, opposing these sanctions and signaling it will protect its firms, setting up a direct economic confrontation between the two superpowers.
This creates a dangerous dynamic, that the war is no longer just about Iran, it is increasingly about U.S.–China rivalry playing out through Iran.
Against this backdrop, Trump is heading to Beijing for a high-stakes meeting with Xi Jinping, not from a position of strength, but urgency.
The war has dented his domestic support and complicated U.S. foreign policy, with analysts noting he is now seeking “modest wins” rather than sweeping breakthroughs.
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One of his key goals is to persuade China to help broker peace with Iran, leveraging Beijing’s close ties with Tehran. But that comes at a cost.
China is expected to use this moment to push its own agenda, including trade concessions, technology restrictions, and geopolitical influence in Asia. In essence, any cooperation on Iran could require the U.S. to compromise elsewhere.
Several scenarios are now emerging, each with global consequences.
If China steps in as a mediator, there is a chance, however slim, of a negotiated de-escalation. Beijing has already positioned itself as a neutral actor calling for diplomacy, and it has the economic leverage over Iran to bring it to the table.
But if tensions between the U.S. and China continue to escalate, the conflict could deepen. Sanctions targeting Chinese-linked networks risk provoking retaliation, potentially widening the crisis into a broader economic or even geopolitical standoff.
Meanwhile, on the ground, the risks are intensifying. Continued disruption in oil flows, especially through the Strait of Hormuz, could trigger sustained global inflation, hitting fuel, food, and transport costs worldwide, including in economies like Kenya that are highly sensitive to oil prices.
What makes this moment particularly significant is that it signals a shift in how wars are fought and resolved.
This is no longer just a military confrontation, it is a layered conflict involving, energy security , global trade routes, sanctions and financial systems, as well as superpower rivalry.
China is not sending troops, but its economic and diplomatic influence may ultimately shape the outcome more than military action itself. For now, the world is watching Beijing as closely as it is watching Tehran or Washington.
Because the next phase of this war may not be decided on the battlefield, but at the negotiating table in China.