By Brian Kiprono - Reporter
Kenya, July 13, 2026 -President William Ruto has strengthened his lead in the race to State House, while Nairobi Senator Edwin Sifuna has emerged as one of the biggest surprises in the latest Infotrak opinion poll, tying former Interior Cabinet Secretary Fred Matiang'i for third place.
The Voice of the People Poll, conducted by Infotrak Research and Consulting, places Ruto at 32 per cent, ahead of Wiper leader Kalonzo Musyoka at 13 per cent. Sifuna and Matiang'i each received 12 per cent support, highlighting a rapidly shifting opposition landscape ahead of the 2027 General Election.
The survey shows Ruto has steadily widened his lead over the past year, rising from 21 per cent in August 2025 to 28 per cent in December 2025, before climbing to 32 per cent in June 2026.
"William Ruto has consolidated his front-runner status, rising from 21 per cent in August 2025 to 28 per cent in December 2025 and 32 per cent in June 2026, a net gain of 11 percentage points," the report states.
While Ruto remains the candidate to beat, the poll identifies Sifuna as the race's fastest-rising contender after making a significant leap to match Matiang'i, who had previously been regarded as one of the opposition's strongest presidential prospects.
Infotrak noted that "Edwin Sifuna emerges sharply in June at 12 per cent after negligible visibility in December 2025," while Matiang'i's support declined from 15 per cent to 12 per cent over the same period.
Kalonzo also recorded steady growth, increasing from eight per cent in August 2025 to 13 per cent in the latest survey, making him Ruto's closest named challenger.
Former Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua was placed fifth with four per cent, followed by Embakasi East MP Babu Owino at three per cent, former Chief Justice David Maraga at two per cent, and People's Liberation Party leader Martha Karua at one per cent.
The poll also found that 18 per cent of respondents remain undecided, suggesting the race is still fluid despite Ruto's lead.
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Regionally, Ruto recorded his strongest support in North Eastern (59 per cent), followed by Rift Valley (46 per cent), Nyanza (40 per cent), Western (35 per cent) and the Coast (33 per cent). His weakest showing was in Central Kenya, where he attracted 12 per cent support.
Kalonzo maintained dominance in his traditional Eastern political base with 40 per cent support, while Matiang'i led in Central Kenya with 19 per cent.
Among political parties, Ruto commanded overwhelming loyalty from UDA supporters, with 87 per cent backing him, while Kalonzo received 89 per cent support from Wiper supporters.
The survey also highlighted divisions within several parties. Among ODM supporters, Ruto attracted 38 per cent support compared with 23 per cent for Sifuna, while 39 per cent preferred other candidates or remained undecided.
Supporters of Gachagua's Democracy for Citizens Party (DCP) were also split, with only 24 per cent backing their party leader. Kalonzo and Sifuna each received 20 per cent support among DCP supporters.
The nationwide survey interviewed 3,000 adults across all 47 counties between 22 and 26 June 2026 and has a margin of error of plus or minus 1.79 percentage points at a 95 per cent confidence level.