By Benadeta Mwaura - Reporter
Kenya, April 07, 2026 - Global oil markets have entered panic territory. According to IEA Oil and gas crisis from Iran war is currently worse than in 1973, 1979 and 2022 together.
Physical crude prices have surged to nearly $150 per barrel, the highest levels in modern trading, as the crisis around the Strait of Hormuz intensifies and immediate supply tightens across global markets.
Unlike futures prices, which remain lower, the spike in physical oil, actual barrels ready for delivery, signals urgent shortages, with refiners scrambling to secure supply. Benchmarks such as North Sea crude have already crossed previous historic highs, reflecting what analysts describe as a market driven by fear, not fundamentals.
The disruption is significant. Around 10–12 million barrels per day, roughly 10–12% of global supply, has been affected, as Iran continues to restrict movement through one of the world’s most critical energy chokepoints.
For global markets, this is an energy shock. But for Kenya, it is something more immediate.
From global crisis to local pressure.
Kenya imports nearly all of its refined petroleum, meaning any disruption in global oil flows translates almost directly into domestic pressure. As tensions escalated, Brent crude prices crossed $110 per barrel, triggering fears of imminent price hikes locally.
The timing is critical. The country is heading into a new pricing cycle by the Energy and Petroleum Regulatory Authority, and expectations of higher pump prices are already building.
Current prices in Nairobi hover around KSh182 per litre for petrol and KSh170 for diesel, offering little cushion if global costs continue rising.
For many Kenyans, the concern is no longer abstract.
It is immediate.
“Everything will go up”, the human cost
Across Nairobi and other urban centres, the anxiety is already visible at fuel stations and in transport hubs.
Motorists and public transport operators are bracing for another wave of increases, with many linking fuel prices directly to their daily survival. As one commuter told local media, “when fuel goes up, everything else follows, it’s not just transport, it’s food, it’s rent.”
That sentiment reflects a broader economic reality. Fuel sits at the centre of Kenya’s economy, powering transport, agriculture, and manufacturing. Any increase triggers a cascading effect across the cost of living.
Even before any official adjustment, early signs are already emerging. Reports indicate that matatu fares are beginning to rise, while businesses are adjusting prices in anticipation of higher transport costs.
Supply fears and early warning signs
The pressure is not just on prices, it is also on supply.
Recent industry warnings suggest that up to 20% of fuel outlets in Kenya have already been affected by supply disruptions, with retailers cautioning that the situation could escalate into a full-blown shortage if the Middle East crisis persists.
Martin Chomba, chairman of the Petroleum Outlets Association of Kenya, warned that “we have constrained supply,” adding that without intervention, “in two weeks it will be a total crisis.”
The concern is compounded by Kenya’s reliance on government-to-government fuel deals with Gulf countries, which limits flexibility in sourcing alternative supply when disruptions occur.
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Government reassurances, and underlying tension
Despite mounting pressure, the government has sought to reassure the public.
Officials have maintained that the country has adequate fuel reserves and that supply chains remain intact. Energy Cabinet Secretary Opiyo Wandayi has indicated that Kenya is prepared to withstand short-term disruptions, while the National Treasury says it is monitoring global price movements closely.
However, the reassurance comes against a complicated backdrop.
Questions have already emerged around the management of fuel imports, including reported losses and procurement controversies within the sector. These concerns, coupled with rising global prices, are feeding public skepticism about how effectively the situation can be managed.
At the same time, Kenya’s fuel reserves are estimated at just over two weeks, a window that aligns uncomfortably with the timeline of the ongoing crisis.
A system under strain
What is unfolding is not just a price issue, it is a stress test of Kenya’s entire energy system.
The combination of global supply disruption, domestic dependence on imports, limited strategic reserves, and rigid supply agreements creates a situation where the country has very little room to maneuver.
Even attempts to stabilise prices through regulation may only delay the impact. As seen in recent weeks, holding prices artificially low can trigger unintended consequences such as hoarding, panic buying, and supply tightening.
The global crisis hitting local realities
Globally, analysts are already warning that the current energy shock could be more severe than previous oil crises, with risks of inflation and economic slowdown rising across multiple regions.
But for countries like Kenya, the impact is amplified.
As an oil-importing economy with a high cost of living, Kenya does not just experience the shock, it absorbs it directly into: transport costs, food prices, business operations, as well as household budgets
What is happening in the Strait of Hormuz may feel distant.
But its effects are already being felt on Kenyan roads, in matatus, in markets, and in households.
Because in a globalised energy system, a disruption thousands of kilometres away does not stay there.
It arrives, quietly at first, then all at once—at the fuel pump.
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