By Kepher Otieno - Reporter
26 January 2026 - Ethiopia has signalled an ambitious recalibration of its military doctrine, with Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed announcing that the Ethiopian Air Force (EAF) will transition from a fourth-generation force to a fifth-generation capability by 2030—while doubling its combat aircraft fleet in the process.
The declaration, made during celebrations marking the Air Force’s 90th anniversary in Addis Ababa, places airpower at the centre of Ethiopia’s evolving national security and regional posture.
“The Ethiopian Air Force, which has cultivated a formidable fourth-generation combat capability, will transition into fifth-generation by 2030,” Abiy said, framing the move as both a technological and strategic necessity.
According to the Prime Minister, the expansion will deliver “a more robust and sophisticated aerial defence for the nation,” anchored on advanced technology, precision capability and reduced human loss.
The announcement is not merely about new aircraft. Abiy linked the transformation to a five-year push that has prioritised modern air-defence systems, upgraded technology and intensive human-capital development.
“Our objective is to achieve victory by minimizing human loss through advanced technology, precision strikes, and superior capability,” he said—an articulation that underscores a shift toward deterrence, speed and accuracy rather than attritional warfare.
Abiy acknowledged that despite its long history, the Air Force had not consistently received capacity building commensurate with its age and responsibilities. That gap, he argued, is now being addressed through planned investments and partnerships.
“At present, the Government of Ethiopia has planned and identified partners to double the current air force capacity,” he revealed, signalling external cooperation while avoiding specifics.
The Prime Minister’s remarks cast the EAF as both a historical guardian and a contemporary stabiliser. He recalled its role in defending African airspace during the colonial era and described the force as “one of Africa’s most respected institutions,” built by successive generations and governments. Today, he said, the EAF “stands stronger than at any point in its 90-year history.”
Yet Abiy was careful to temper the hardware narrative with a human one. “Advanced aircraft alone do not create a decisive air force,” he cautioned.
“Without skilled, disciplined, and patriotic professionals, machines cannot deliver victory.” The emphasis on pilots, engineers and commanders reflects a recognition that fifth-generation warfare—defined by stealth, sensors, data fusion and networked operations—demands elite training and institutional discipline.
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Beyond defence, Abiy drew a direct line between security and economic performance.
He noted Ethiopia’s recent 9.2% economic growth and a projected 10.3% this year 2026, arguing that such momentum can only be sustained within “a strong and balanced security architecture.”
In his formulation, diplomacy, politics and military capability must advance together if Ethiopia is to remain stable and respected.
The message to the region and beyond was calibrated: Ethiopia remains open to cooperation, partnership and shared growth, but will not compromise its sovereignty.
“While the nation keeps its doors open to friends, it must also ensure that its doors are securely closed to those who threaten its unity, dignity, and national interests,” Abiy said, reinforcing a doctrine of openness backed by resolve.
He stressed that Ethiopia has learned from history and is determined to prevent the recurrence of internal and external destabilisation through “strength, vigilance, and unity.” Both allies and adversaries, he added, must recognise that Ethiopia is “far stronger, more capable, and more advanced than outdated perceptions suggest.”
As Addis Ababa sets its sights on fifth-generation airpower, the subtext is clear: Ethiopia intends to anchor its development trajectory with credible deterrence and modern force projection.
“Ethiopia’s development trajectory is irreversible,” Abiy concluded, arguing that challenges may arise, but they will “accelerate progress rather than halt it.”
The coming years will test whether the ambition can be matched by resources, partnerships and sustained institutional reform—but the signal has been unmistakably sent.
Ethiopia Signals Major Airpower Leap as PM Abiy Targets Fifth-Generation Air Force By 2030
Ethiopia's PM draws a direct line between security and economic performance
