By Kepher Otieno - Reporter
Kenya, 5 January 2026 - As Kenya exits the Common Market for Eastern and Southern Africa (COMESA) Sugar Safeguard after 24 years, domestic sugarcane farmers are urging caution, warning that the removal of import barriers could undermine local production and threaten their incomes.
The safeguard, which lapsed on 30 November 2025, had protected the domestic industry while it underwent long-term reforms.
Kenya National Sugarcane Farmers Federation Chair Ezra Okoth expressed concern over the potential impact of liberalised imports.
“We cannot allow floodgates to open to cheaper imports that undermine our domestic production. Sugarcane farmers depend on predictable prices per tonne, and uncontrolled imports could push down returns, affecting livelihoods and discouraging production.”
Okoth’s warning underscores lingering anxieties among farmers, even as the government hails the exit as a milestone.
He stressed that per-capita returns for farmers remain a key issue, and that any policy opening the market must ensure controlled, transparent importation to safeguard farmer incomes.
The Kenya Sugar Board (KSB) and the government, however, maintain that the sugar industry is well-prepared to compete.
CEO Jude Chesire framed the exit as a vote of confidence in ongoing reforms in the industry.
“The exit from the safeguard reflects strength, not vulnerability. Kenya’s sugar industry is stable, well-managed, and supported by clear policy direction. This is not about exposure, rather it is about confidence in our ability to compete fairly in the regional market."
Chesire emphasised that the sector’s shift from protection to competitiveness includes value addition beyond table sugar.
Integrated processing—turning molasses into ethanol, bagasse into electricity, and exploring industrial alcohols and paper manufacturing—is helping mills diversify revenue streams, strengthen cash flows, and improve farmer payments.
“Our strategy ensures that sugarcane is valued as an industrial raw material, which lowers production costs and positions Kenya to compete with regional exporters," Chesire added.
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Production has shown strong gains in recent years.
Sugarcane acreage rose by 19.4% to 289,631 hectares, while output jumped 76% to 815,454 metric tonnes.
Yet, with annual domestic consumption at approximately 1.1 million metric tonnes, imports remain necessary to meet demand during mill ramp-ups and seasonal shortfalls.
While consumers could benefit from more affordable sugar, farmers fear that excessive reliance on imports could destabilize prices and reduce the profitability of local cane. Kenya has historically faced such cycles, where liberalized imports coincided with delayed payments and depressed farm incomes.
Analysts note that the exit represents a calculated shift from protectionism to competitiveness, reflecting decades of structural reform. Privatization of state-owned mills through long-term leasing, improved farm productivity, and strategic investments in processing efficiency have strengthened the sector.
“The conclusion of the safeguard marks the successful completion of a reform cycle,”Chesire said.
“Kenya now enters a new phase defined by competitiveness, value addition, regional integration, and sustainable growth.”
Yet balancing competitiveness with farmer protection remains delicate. Okoth insisted that policy must prevent cheap imports from undermining domestic gains: “Competitiveness is welcome, but it must not come at the expense of the farmers who have invested decades of effort into rebuilding this industry. Policy must protect their livelihoods as the market opens.”
The medium-term outlook is cautiously optimistic. As mill capacity expands, productivity improves, and imports are carefully managed, Kenya could not only meet domestic demand but eventually achieve surplus production, positioning itself as a regional exporter.
However, the success of this liberalised phase depends on strong regulatory oversight, transparent import frameworks, and continued investment in value addition.
The coming seasons will therefore be a critical test: ensuring sugar remains affordable for consumers, profitable for millers, and sustainable for farmers, all while competing within the COMESA Free Trade Area.
