Africa Moves to the Center of Türkiye’s Intelligence and Security Doctrine

The writer notes that Sudan completes this strategic arc and directly connects Türkiye’s Africa policy to the Red Sea basin. Turkish intelligence activities there are framed as efforts to contain regional spillover from Sudan’s civil war, which has been worsened by external arms flows and rival interventions across the Red Sea. Ankara, he says, emphasizes dialogue, de-escalation and protection of civilian and commercial corridors rather than proxy warfare.

According to the writer, the Red Sea and the Horn of Africa have become the sharpest testing ground for Türkiye’s approach, as global trade disruptions, the war in Sudan and the fallout from the Yemen conflict have turned the corridor into one of the world’s most contested maritime spaces. He notes that Türkiye’s intelligence presence is expanding alongside that of other regional and external actors, but with a stated focus on working through state institutions and long-term partnerships.

The writer says this doctrinal shift is underpinned by what Kalın describes as a “preventive intelligence paradigm,” integrating human, technical and open-source intelligence, increasingly supported by artificial intelligence, to detect risks early and neutralize threats before they escalate. Operations in Africa, he notes, are now viewed as extensions of Türkiye’s broader security perimeter rather than distant engagements.

Security considerations are closely linked to economic interests. The writer notes that trade between Türkiye and Africa exceeded $37 billion in 2024, with Ankara targeting $40 billion in 2025. Turkish contractors have completed roughly 2,000 projects worth about $100 billion across the continent. Trade volumes have risen nearly eightfold since 2003, while the number of Turkish embassies in Africa has increased from 12 to 44. Turkish Airlines now serves more than 60 destinations in about 40 African countries.

The writer says intelligence cooperation helps protect airlines, supply chains and infrastructure projects, while expanding trade and connectivity enhance Ankara’s leverage and legitimacy in security partnerships.

At the same time, he notes that the expanded footprint exposes Türkiye to complex risks, including political instability, insurgencies and maritime insecurity. How Ankara manages these challenges, the writer concludes, will shape whether its Africa-focused intelligence doctrine is seen as a stabilizing middle-power model or another layer in an increasingly crowded strategic landscape.