By Abdullahi Salad - Reporter
Somalia, July 16 2026 — A contest expected to emerge closer to the election has already moved to the forefront. Three platforms, three delegations and three separate negotiating tables show that divisions within Somalia’s opposition are no longer limited to the presidency. The dispute now extends to who has the right to represent the opposition and which electoral model should shape the country’s political future.
Somalia’s opposition has entered an electoral period without agreed rules, and is moving in three different directions. The Somali Future Council, Nabad iyo Nolol and the National Unity Forum have each held separate meetings with the government and presented their own proposals.
Rather than approach the government with a single position, the groups are competing to be recognised as the legitimate opposition, to gain negotiating authority, and to claim political leadership.
Internal rivalry has long defined Somalia’s opposition. Candidates have often run indirect campaigns, using allies to deliver criticism without naming targets.
Yet when confronting the government or opposing an electoral model, opposition figures have usually presented a united front.
During the 2021 electoral dispute, for example, opposition parties and presidential candidates formed a joint alliance to respond to election delays and the expiry of the government’s mandate.
Despite different interests and competing ambitions, they avoided exposing divisions until they had dealt with what they saw as a common threat.
Today the situation is reversed. The contest expected after an electoral agreement has started early.
The opposition has not agreed with the government on the electoral law, the body to manage the election, or the process for transferring power. Yet groups are already divided over who should lead them.
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Nabad iyo Nolol, led by former President Mohamed Abdullahi Farmaajo, complained of exclusion from the opposition delegation being prepared for negotiations.
Instead of withdrawing, the movement held separate talks with the government and mediators as an independent platform.
The decision sent two messages: that Nabad iyo Nolol does not accept the Somali Future Council, or any other group, speaking for it; and that it wants to rebuild an independent political identity. Its leadership represents the former administration that many in the Somali Future Council opposed in 2021.
This has produced an unusual picture: politicians who once united against Nabad iyo Nolol are now competing with it to lead opposition to the current government.
The contest resembles an election before the official election.
It is about who will become the centre of the opposition, gain international recognition, secure the most significant agreement with the government, and emerge as the candidate around whom others rally.
While that contest continues, the government retains one negotiating table, one state structure, and the authority to set the agenda.
The opposition arrives with three separate tables, each seeking priority.