By Dr. Mohamud Uluso - former Minister and Governor of the Central Bank of Somalia. Currently, he is an economic and political analyst and advocate for good governance and sustainable peace in Somalia.
“Constitutions are tested not when leaders respect them, but when political power tempts them to bypass them.”- Dr. Mohamud Uluso
For months, the political standoff between Galmudug President Ahmed Abdi Qoorqoor and President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud has become a focal point of Somalia’s constitutional debate.
To many observers, the dispute extends far beyond Galmudug itself. It raises fundamental questions about the future of federalism, constitutional governance, and the balance of power between the federal government and the Federal Member States.
According to critics of the federal government, political tensions intensified after the disputed constitutional amendments, the creation of the Justice and Solidarity Party (JSP), and the introduction of a controversial “one person, one vote” electoral model operating within the traditional 4.5 clan framework.
They argue that these developments have coincided with an increasing concentration of political authority in Villa Somalia and a gradual weakening of the federal balance envisioned in Somalia’s Provisional Constitution. Supporters of the government, however, maintain that these reforms are intended to strengthen national institutions and establish a more coherent democratic system.
Against this backdrop, Southwest State became the first major arena of confrontation. Following a prolonged dispute between the federal government and the regional administration, President Abdiaziz Laftagareen was removed from office and a temporary administration was established to oversee a political transition.
Critics have described the process as unconstitutional, while the federal government has defended it as part of an electoral transition. Although a new administration has assumed office, Laftagareen continues to contest the legitimacy of the transition, and political tensions in and around Baidoa have persisted.
Shortly afterward, the federal government confronted prominent opposition leaders, including former President Sheikh Sharif Sheikh Ahmed and former Prime Minister Hassan Ali Khaire. Security forces surrounded their residences in Mogadishu during an operation that attracted widespread public attention.
Opposition figures alleged that the operation was intended to arrest them and, according to some accounts, that excessive force could be used if they resisted. Those allegations have not been independently verified, but the incident reinforced concerns among government critics about the increasing use of state security institutions in political disputes.
Attention then shifted to Galmudug. President Ahmed Abdi Qoorqoor initially insisted that he had the constitutional right to seek another term through a competitive election while pledging to hand over power peacefully if defeated. His supporters regarded this as a defense of constitutional federalism rather than a personal political ambition.
Political observers, however, suggest that his refusal to withdraw was viewed within sections of the federal leadership as a challenge to the political direction being pursued from Villa Somalia.
According to several political sources, a series of negotiations followed involving senior federal officials, including NISA Director Mahad Salad and Interim Prime Minister Hamza Abdi Barre. While the full details of those discussions have never been publicly disclosed, Qoorqoor later announced that he would not contest the presidency, explaining that his decision was intended to preserve peace, protect Galmudug from instability, and safeguard the achievements of his administration.
His decision immediately shifted the national conversation away from personalities and toward constitutional principles. If a sitting regional president was entitled to seek reelection under the existing constitutional framework, why did exercising that right become associated with the risk of political confrontation?
Critics argue that the answer lies not in electoral competition itself but in the growing tendency for major political transitions to be resolved through negotiations with the federal executive rather than through transparent constitutional processes.
For many Somalis, Galmudug represented an opportunity to establish an important constitutional precedent: that leadership of a Federal Member State should be determined through genuinely competitive elections rather than through political understandings reached behind closed doors.
Whether or not Qoorqoor would ultimately have won another term was secondary. The more significant question was whether constitutional rights could be exercised without political coercion or pressure.
Many Somali political observers believe Qoorqoor’s decision reflected more than a personal political calculation. According to political sources and media reports, his withdrawal may have been accompanied by political assurances, future opportunities within national institutions, or other incentives, although the details have never been officially confirmed.
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Whether or not those reports are accurate, the episode has reinforced a broader perception that constitutional disputes in Somalia are increasingly resolved through political bargaining rather than through independent institutions or established legal procedures.
This perception has fueled concern that the Galmudug succession forms part of a wider political strategy. Supporters of the federal government argue that closer coordination between the center and the Federal Member States is necessary to implement national reforms and stabilize the country.
Critics, however, interpret recent developments differently. They contend that the federal leadership has sought to consolidate executive authority, expand its political influence over regional administrations, and reduce the independence traditionally exercised by the Federal Member States.
Within this broader debate, analysts have advanced several explanations for the political significance of the Galmudug transition. Some point to unresolved political disagreements between President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud and Ahmed Abdi Qoorqoor dating back to the 2022 parliamentary elections.
Others argue that the transition strengthens the federal government’s position in its continuing political disputes with Puntland and Jubbaland or reshapes alliances ahead of future national elections. Additional commentary has linked the succession to economic interests, internal party dynamics, and the evolving relationship between the federal government and former Prime Minister Mohamed Hussein Roble.
While these interpretations remain matters of political analysis rather than established fact, they demonstrate how the Galmudug succession has become a national constitutional issue rather than simply a regional election.
The author also argues that responsibility for the current situation does not rest solely with the federal leadership. President Qoorqoor himself, he contends, bears part of the responsibility. Throughout much of his presidency, Qoorqoor generally chose political accommodation with the federal government, particularly after questions arose concerning the expiration of his own mandate.
In the author’s view, that strategy may have offered short-term political stability, but it also increased Galmudug’s dependence on decisions made in Villa Somalia.
If reports regarding political incentives connected to Qoorqoor’s withdrawal prove accurate, the author argues that such arrangements risk reinforcing a political culture in which constitutional rights become negotiable and political office is increasingly shaped by elite bargaining rather than open competition.
Regardless of the specific details, every political settlement perceived to replace transparent elections with private negotiations risks weakening public confidence in constitutional governance, the rule of law, and democratic accountability.
Ultimately, the central question is no longer who becomes the next President of Galmudug. The more important issue is whether Somalia will continue developing as a constitutional federal republic governed by competitive elections, institutional checks and balances, and the rule of law, or whether political authority will become increasingly centralized within the federal executive.
The author emphasizes that this is not an argument against Liban Ahmed Hassan or his right to contest and govern Galmudug if elected through a genuinely free and competitive process. Rather, it is a critique of the legitimacy, transparency, and constitutional credibility of the process itself. Democratic legitimacy depends not only on who wins office but also on whether every qualified candidate has a fair opportunity to compete under impartial rules.
The developments in Southwest State and Galmudug, the author argues, should therefore be understood as part of a broader constitutional debate over the future of Somalia’s federal system. Precedents established in one Federal Member State inevitably influence political expectations elsewhere. If constitutional procedures are perceived to yield to political bargaining or executive discretion, public trust in federal institutions may continue to erode.
In the end, Somalia’s long-term stability will depend less on the political fortunes of individual leaders than on the strength and credibility of its institutions. Durable peace cannot rest solely on political agreements among elites. It also requires constitutional safeguards that protect political competition, ensure accountability, and provide impartial mechanisms for resolving disputes.
Whether one agrees with the author’s conclusions or not, the Galmudug succession has become a defining moment in Somalia’s continuing debate over federalism, constitutional governance, and the distribution of political power. For many Somalis, the enduring question is not simply who governs today, but what constitutional principles will govern the country tomorrow.
Dr. Mohamud Uluso former Minister and Governor of the Central Bank of Somalia. Currently, he is an economic and political analyst and advocate for good governance and sustainable peace in Somalia.
The views expressed in this article are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of the Dawan Africa platform.