Opinion | The Costly Recognition: Why Israel Is Likely to Walk Back Its Recognition of Somali Secessionists

When the leader of the Muslim world, Mohammed bin Salman, spoke with Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, and Turkey’s foreign minister followed with a public interview, one message stood out. Unity. Not as poetry. As policy. Yemen and Somalia were treated as whole states, not pieces to be traded or tested.

“The Islamic world has awakened from a hundred years of deep sleep.”

That choice of language was not accidental. Senior leaders do not repeat themes casually. They signal intent. They also signal limits.

Saudi and Turkish lobbying in Washington is now open and sustained. That matters. It shifts the issue from abstract debate to political consequence. The question facing Israel is no longer theoretical. Does it step back from its unlawful recognition of a northern secessionist entity in Somalia, or does it push forward and widen the conflict?

AU and OIC Draw a Red Line

The African Union and the Organization of Islamic Cooperation left no room for ambiguity. Their position reflected overwhelming support for the sovereignty and territorial integrity of Somalia. Against that backdrop, Israel’s decision reads less like diplomacy and more like deliberate political provocation. It runs contrary to international law, undercuts the principle of African unity, and risks unsettling already fragile political dynamics in the Horn of Africa.

In a region where borders and legitimacy remain sensitive questions, such moves do not exist in isolation. They reverberate, and the consequences rarely stop at the point of intent.

Why the Red Sea Changes Everything

The geography alone should give pause. The Red Sea doorway matters. Bab el Mandeb matters. Proximity to Yemen matters. Nothing in this corridor stays contained for long.

For Benjamin Netanyahu, the risk is no longer limited to protests at home. The greater danger is the erosion of the quiet middle abroad. Editors, diplomats, and moderate voters in Western capitals once provided Israel with diplomatic cover. That shield is thinning. Public opinion is shifting, and not subtly. Many now see a state acting in ways that sit uneasily with the values it claims to uphold. That perception carries consequences, and Netanyahu is running out of room.

There is another factor Israel appears to have underestimated. The reaction across the Muslim world. This was not a single statement from one capital. It was layered and coordinated. Ankara spoke. Riyadh signaled. Others aligned. The pushback was broader and faster than expected. In Washington, where coalition pressure still matters, that carries weight.

Trump’s Calculation and the Inevitable Walk-Back

This trajectory does not serve the interests of Donald Trump. And because it does not serve his interests, he will move to shut it down.

Trump is not sentimental. He calculates cost. He measures leverage. He counts open fronts. Right now, the board is crowded. He is already clashing with the European Union over reckless  surrounding Greenland. He is also locked in rhetorical confrontation with Russia and China over Latin America, with Venezuela and Nicolás Maduro sitting squarely in that dispute. Every additional crisis narrows his margin for maneuver.

Adding the Horn of Africa to that list makes no sense. Somalia is not peripheral. It sits astride critical shipping lanes. It touches Red Sea security. It intersects directly with Gulf politics. Most importantly, it pulls Turkey and Saudi Arabia into the same frame. That combination alone should give any White House pause.

The deeper concern is strategic. No major power wants to accelerate the formation of a security bloc it cannot shape or control.  of closer defense coordination between Turkey, Saudi Arabia, and Pakistan is no longer fringe chatter. It is being discussed seriously. Pakistan changes the equation. It is a nuclear power with real military depth, and any alignment that includes Islamabad will be viewed differently in every major capital.