By Abdilatif Abdullahi Mohamed - Agricultural and environmental professional specializing in climate resilience and sustainable development in Somalia.
«Somalia cannot stop El Niño or La Niña, but it can stop climate warnings from becoming repeated humanitarian emergencies». Abdilatif Abdullahi Mohamed
Somalia knows what climate extremes look like. Families have watched wells dry up, crops fail, livestock weaken, roads disappear under floodwater and food prices rise when transport routes are cut. The country does not need another disaster to prove that droughts and floods are dangerous. It needs to build a stronger habit of acting before the damage becomes severe.
El Niño and La Niña are natural climate patterns that begin far from Somalia, in the tropical Pacific Ocean near the equator. During El Niño, parts of the central and eastern Pacific become warmer than usual. That warming changes winds and atmospheric circulation, with effects that can reach far beyond the Pacific. In some El Niño seasons, East Africa can experience wetter conditions, increasing the risk of heavy rain and flooding. La Niña is the opposite pattern: parts of the tropical Pacific become cooler than usual, and in East Africa it can contribute to reduced rainfall and drought.
That is why climate patterns in the Pacific matter to Somali farmers, pastoralists and traders. The ocean may be far away, but its effects can reach daily life through rainfall, water supplies, pasture, crop production, roads, markets and disease risks. Climate science may sound technical, but its consequences are simple: too little rain can destroy livelihoods, and too much can do the same.
Somalia has already seen the cost#
Somalia has experienced both sides of this crisis. In 2022, four consecutive failed rainy seasons pushed millions of people into severe food insecurity. About 7.1 million Somalis faced crisis-level food insecurity or worse during that period. Pasture declined, water sources dried up and livestock weakened. For many Somali households, livestock are more than animals: they provide milk, food, savings, income and security. When herds collapse, the loss can affect a family for years.
Then, in 2023, the country faced another extreme. El Niño-related rainfall and flooding displaced large numbers of people and increased the risk of waterborne disease. Roads and settlements were affected, and communities that had endured drought suddenly faced too much water. Those two years should have taught us a clear lesson: Somalia cannot build its climate policy around drought alone. It must prepare for both drought and floods.
The warning continued in 2026. Parts of Puntland again experienced severe drought, with livestock in poor condition, animals dying, pasture depleted and water sources dry or saline. In some markets, weakened animals also lost value. By the time livestock are dying and families are forced to sell weak animals at low prices, the response has come too late. Support must begin before herds collapse.
Warnings must lead to early action#
Somalia needs to shift from emergency response to early action. A forecast should not remain in a technical report or government office; it should trigger decisions. If drier conditions are expected, authorities and partners should repair water points, support livestock, prepare fodder and veterinary services, advise farmers on planting and assist vulnerable households before conditions worsen.
If heavy rain is expected, communities should clear drainage channels, monitor river levels, protect water sources, identify evacuation routes and position essential supplies before roads become impassable.
Climate information must also reach people in language they understand. A message saying that “above-normal rainfall is possible” may be scientifically accurate, but it is not enough. Farmers need to know whether to delay planting. Families living near rivers need to know whether to move livestock and belongings to safer ground. Pastoralists need information on where pasture and water may become scarce.
Warnings should be shared in clear Somali through radio, mobile phones, social media, mosques, schools, local authorities and trusted community leaders.
Water, farming and livestock must come first#
Water should be at the centre of Somalia’s climate strategy. During drought, there is too little water; during floods, too much can arrive in a short period. The country needs more rainwater harvesting and storage, irrigation, functioning boreholes, berkads, small reservoirs, drainage systems and better river monitoring. When heavy rain comes, the goal should not only be to survive it. Where practical, some of that water should be captured and stored for the next dry period.
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Maintenance matters as much as construction. A new borehole is of little use if it breaks during a drought. A drainage channel cannot protect a neighbourhood if it is blocked before the rainy season. Climate resilience is not only about launching new projects; it also means ensuring existing systems work when people need them most.
Farmers and pastoralists need support before losses become irreversible. Farmers need suitable seeds, drought-tolerant crops, irrigation, soil and water conservation, pest advice and useful seasonal forecasts. Pastoralists need timely information about pasture, water, animal disease and markets. Veterinary care, vaccinations, fodder and water assistance should be available before livestock conditions collapse. Early support is usually cheaper and more effective than rebuilding livelihoods after major losses.
Preparation must protect health and markets#
Flood preparation must also protect public health. Floodwater can contaminate wells, mix with sewage and increase the risk of diarrhoeal diseases and cholera. Floods can cut communities off from health centres and force families into crowded temporary shelters. Planning should therefore include safe water, sanitation, medical supplies, temporary shelter and clear evacuation routes—not just warnings about rising water.
Somalia should also combine modern climate science with Somali knowledge. Farmers, pastoralists and elders know which wells dry first, which roads flood quickly and which grazing areas recover after rain. Satellite data and seasonal forecasts can add information about the scale and timing of climate events. Used together, local knowledge and modern science can support better decisions.
The economic impact of climate shocks should not be overlooked. Flooded roads disrupt trade. Drought reduces livestock supplies and household incomes. Transport costs rise, and food prices can follow. Traders, transporters and local authorities need climate information too, because keeping markets open and goods moving is part of protecting communities.
The choice is preparation or repeated crisis#
The message is straightforward. Somalia cannot control the Pacific Ocean or prevent El Niño and La Niña from developing. But it can decide whether a warning is followed by preparation or another emergency appeal. It can warn people earlier, protect water supplies, support farmers and pastoralists, prepare health services and keep roads and markets functioning for as long as possible.
Somalia has already paid a high price for repeated climate shocks. The next forecast should not sit on a desk while communities wait for disaster. It should lead to early funding, local preparation and clear public information. The next climate warning should not mark the start of another crisis. It should mark the start of action.
About the Author
Abdilatif Abdullahi Mohamed is an agricultural and environmental professional specializing in climate resilience and sustainable development in Somalia.
The views expressed in this article are the author’s own and do not necessarily reflect those of Dawan Africa.