Opinion: How Does Israel’s Recognition of Somaliland Affect Horn of Africa Security?

“Separatism itself threatens Somalia’s unity, but turning Somaliland into a vehicle for Israeli expansion opens a new flashpoint threatening Horn of Africa security.” -- Mohamed Ahmed Abdullahi Goosaar

For three and a half decades, Somaliland has operated with a high degree of autonomy from the rest of Somalia while persistently seeking international recognition as an independent republic. But that aspiration has remained unfulfilled, with international and regional powers showing little interest in the separatist claims of the regions in northwestern Somalia.

There are several reasons for this. One is concern among regional powers over the risks of altering sovereign borders inherited from European colonial rule without the consent of the state concerned, as occurred with Ethiopia in the case of Eritrea’s separation.

There are fears that other parts of Africa could unravel like a broken necklace, given that the continent carries a colonial legacy reflected in more than one hundred border disputes. Preserving the borders inherited from colonial rule was one of the principles upon which the Organization of African Unity was founded in the early 1960s, before it became the African Union.

A second reason is that the absence of Somalia’s central government from international forums and the country’s descent into chaos meant that international and regional powers had little need to use Somaliland’s separatist cause as leverage against Mogadishu. These powers were able to operate throughout Somalia without having to contend with a Somali state exercising effective sovereignty over its territory.

But nearly four decades after Somaliland declared itself independent from what was known as the Somali Republic, Israel has become the first and only entity to announce its recognition of Somaliland as an independent country, with little regard for the security and political consequences of such a move.

Why Israel, and Why Now?#

Israel is the only state in the region built on occupation and the seizure of innocent people’s homes to turn them into settlements for Jews from the diaspora around the world. It is an entity founded on usurpation and massacres and gives little weight to legitimacy or international law.

Somalia’s sovereignty under international law therefore carries little meaning for it, nor does the African Union’s principle of respecting the borders inherited from European colonial rule.

Israel is an entity that operates outside international legitimacy, and its killing, displacement and massacres against Palestinians have risen to the level of genocide without fear of legal or political consequences.

The question “Why Israel?” therefore requires little more than examining Israel’s position within the framework of international law. But the question “Why this particular timing?” requires a closer look at political and security developments in both Israel and Somalia.

Since October 7, 2023, the Middle East landscape has changed dramatically. Fighters from the Islamic Resistance Movement, Hamas, launched a surprise attack that resulted in around 2,000 people killed and wounded, while about 250 others were taken hostage to the Gaza Strip.

The actual cost of the attack was not limited to human losses. It also dealt a severe blow to the reputation of Israel’s security and intelligence agencies because of their failure to anticipate that Hamas could carry out such an attack.

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s reputation was also badly damaged, with his opponents demanding that he step down and accept responsibility for the security and military failure.

As noted earlier, one of the main reasons regional and international powers remained reluctant to engage with Somaliland’s separatist cause for more than three decades was the absence of a sovereign central authority in Somalia, allowing those powers to pursue their interests inside the country without bearing the political cost of becoming involved in an issue of such magnitude.

But after Somalia returned to international forums and began exercising its sovereign rights over its land, sea and air, while regional powers entered into cooperation and investment agreements with it, some competitors — or those angered by Türkiye’s growing role in Somalia — began searching for Somalia’s pressure points and ways to gain leverage over Mogadishu.

As Israel was among the powers most opposed to Turkish expansion, it found in the Somaliland issue a valuable card through which to establish its presence in the region.

At the same time, Netanyahu needed to create a new front that could serve as a political lifeline and allow him to project an image of success to the Israeli public. The result was an alignment of circumstances between Netanyahu and Abdirahman Irro, the president of Somaliland, who was himself seeking the political achievement of securing international recognition.

Irro was facing domestic pressure as a new leader who inherited from his predecessor a heavy burden of unresolved political, security and economic issues, alongside external pressures, including the electronic visa requirement imposed by Mogadishu on every foreigner seeking to enter Somali territory.

Added to this is the issue of Somalia’s Northeastern State, which was established in parts of the territories of the former British colony upon whose colonial boundaries Somaliland seeks to establish its republic. The result was that the two sides entered into what could be described as a “corrupt marriage” lacking the necessary conditions and foundations.