By Abdirahman Mohamed Abdiwahid - Head of Communication and Public Relations at the Ministry of Environment and Climate Change, Federal Government of Somalia.
“An early warning is useful only when it reaches the people who need it, in language they understand, with enough time to act.” Abdirahman Mohamed Abdiwahid
Somalia is approaching the 2026 Deyr season with a climate signal that deserves serious attention. The issue is not only how much rain may fall. It is what we do with the information we have before the rains arrive.
On 3 September 2026, the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) reported that El Niño was firmly established and expected to strengthen further, potentially becoming a very strong event later this year. WMO forecasts indicate a near-100% likelihood that El Niño will persist through February 2027.
For Somalia, this development is particularly important because the latest seasonal rainfall forecasts point to a wetter-than-normal Deyr in large parts of the country. The IGAD Climate Prediction and Applications Centre (ICPAC) forecasts a 90% probability of enhanced rainfall across central and southern Somalia during the October–December 2026 season.
FAO Somalia’s assessment of the same seasonal outlook indicates that, in the area with the strongest signal, there is a 90% probability of above-normal rainfall, compared with 5% for near-normal and 5% for below-normal rainfall.
These figures are seasonal probabilities, not guarantees of rainfall in every location. They tell us what is more likely across a broad area; they do not tell us exactly when or where every heavy rainfall event or flood will occur. That distinction matters when turning forecasts into action.
Strengthening El Niño conditions and the likelihood of above-normal rainfall could bring welcome relief after years of drought and water stress. At the same time, heavier rainfall can bring flash floods, riverine flooding, displacement, damage to infrastructure and public health risks.
For Somalia, then, the question goes beyond the forecast itself. The real test is whether climate information can be turned into practical decisions early enough to protect lives, livelihoods and infrastructure.
El Niño is a naturally occurring climate phenomenon associated with unusually warm sea-surface temperatures in the central and eastern tropical Pacific. Although it develops far from Somalia, it can influence atmospheric circulation and rainfall patterns across the Greater Horn of Africa.
Its importance for Somalia is linked to the potential effect on rainfall during a season when millions of people depend directly or indirectly on climate-sensitive livelihoods.
But seasonal forecasts need to be understood for what they are—and what they are not. A seasonal forecast does not tell us exactly what will happen in every district.
Above-normal seasonal rainfall does not mean that every area will flood, nor does it mean that heavy rain will continue throughout the season. Seasonal forecasts describe probabilities across broad areas and longer periods. The timing, location and intensity of individual storms and floods require shorter-range weather and hydrological information.
That uncertainty is precisely why preparedness matters.
After prolonged drought and severe water stress, improved rainfall could provide important benefits for many communities. Rain can replenish berkads, shallow wells, groundwater and surface-water sources.
It can improve soil moisture, support crop establishment and create better conditions for agricultural production. Pastoral communities may also benefit as pasture regenerates and water becomes more available for livestock.
These possibilities matter because many households have entered the season with limited resources after recent climate shocks. The 2025 Deyr season and drought conditions in early 2026 affected water systems, livestock, agricultural production and household resilience in different parts of the country.
A wetter Deyr should therefore be approached with both opportunity and caution. Rainfall can support recovery, but a rapid shift from drought conditions to excessive rainfall can also create new risks for communities that are already vulnerable.
The practical question is how to protect the benefits of rainfall while reducing its risks.
Farmers need timely information to guide planting decisions and protect seeds and agricultural inputs. Pastoralists need information that can help them plan livestock movement and identify safer access to pasture and water.
Water authorities need to monitor water quality and protect critical infrastructure. Communities need clear information about areas exposed to flooding and the actions they can take before water levels rise.
This is where a seasonal forecast becomes valuable. Its value is not simply in announcing what the climate may do, but in helping people decide what to do next.
The same rainfall that restores a water source can also overwhelm it.
Parts of Somalia highlighted in the October–December 2026 outlook, including Bay, Lower Shabelle and Hiiraan, require particular attention. The Juba and Shabelle river systems are especially important because rainfall in local and upstream catchments can contribute to riverine flooding, affecting settlements, roads and agricultural areas.
Flood risk is also an urban concern. In vulnerable settlements, heavy rainfall can expose weaknesses in drainage systems, roads and other basic infrastructure. Flooding can disrupt services, contaminate water supplies and increase pressure on humanitarian operations, particularly when roads and access routes are affected.
There are health concerns as well. Floodwater can contaminate drinking-water sources and overwhelm sanitation systems. Standing water can also create conditions that increase the risk of vector-borne and other infectious diseases.
Preparedness, therefore, needs to go beyond emergency flood response. Water, sanitation, health and community preparedness should begin before the peak of the rains.
Somalia has to prepare for the possibility of both water scarcity and excess water within the same climate cycle.
The National Climate Outlook Forum provides an important platform for bringing climate information closer to decision-making. Government institutions, climate experts, academia, humanitarian and development partners can use the forum to examine what the forecast means for different sectors and communities.
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But the value of this process goes beyond producing a seasonal outlook. The more important step is turning scientific information into practical guidance.
Farmers do not simply need to hear that above-normal rainfall is expected. They need to understand what that could mean for planting, crop protection and access to fields. A pastoralist needs information that can support decisions about livestock movement. Local authorities need to know which areas require closer monitoring and what preparations should be made before flooding occurs.
An early warning is useful only when it reaches the people who need it, in language they understand, with enough time to act. Communication should therefore be treated as part of preparedness infrastructure—not as a final step after the forecast has been produced.
Managing the risks associated with El Niño cannot be the responsibility of one institution alone.
Effective preparedness requires coordination among climate and environmental authorities, disaster-management institutions, sector ministries, federal member states, humanitarian and development partners, academia, civil society, media, the private sector and communities.
The Ministry of Environment and Climate Change has an important role in supporting climate information services, environmental resilience and public awareness. But climate information becomes most effective when other institutions are able to interpret it for their sectors and use it in planning.
Somalia needs a consistent flow of information: authoritative climate forecasts, sector-specific interpretation, coordinated public messaging, clear responsibilities for dissemination and feedback from the communities receiving the information.
That process must continue throughout the season.
A forecast issued at the beginning of Deyr cannot capture every development that follows. Monthly and sub-seasonal updates, together with weekly and short-range weather and flood information, will be important as conditions change.
There are practical measures that can begin now.
Rainfall and river monitoring should be strengthened, particularly around vulnerable sections of the Juba and Shabelle systems. Flood-prone urban areas can assess drainage channels and identify critical hotspots.
Authorities and partners can review evacuation routes and contingency plans and, where appropriate, position essential humanitarian and water, sanitation and hygiene supplies before access becomes difficult.
Agricultural authorities can translate the forecast into guidance on planting, crop protection and the safeguarding of agricultural inputs. Livestock services can strengthen disease surveillance and provide guidance on safer livestock movement. Health institutions can prepare for possible water contamination and disease risks.
Infrastructure agencies can also inspect vulnerable roads, bridges, culverts and drainage systems while access remains possible.
None of these actions requires knowing exactly where every flood will occur. They require recognizing a simple principle: preparedness is easier when it starts before a hazard becomes an emergency.
Somalia’s experience with repeated climate shocks shows that the impact of a hazard is shaped not only by the hazard itself, but also by exposure, preparedness and the ability of institutions and communities to respond.
The 2026 El Niño outlook should therefore be considered in the context of both risk and opportunity. Improved rainfall could support water security, pasture regeneration and agricultural production. Excessive rainfall, however, could undermine those gains if communities and infrastructure are not adequately prepared.
The task ahead is practical: strengthen monitoring, improve communication, coordinate institutions and act early on available information.
Communities need to be reached before roads are cut off, water sources protected before they become contaminated, livestock safeguarded before floodwaters arrive and farmers supported before crops are damaged.
The effects of El Niño will not be the same across Somalia. Some communities may welcome the rains. Others may face flooding. Many may experience both benefits and risks during the same season.That is why the information available now matters.
A forecast cannot stop a flood. It can, however, give communities and institutions time to prepare for one.
For Somalia, that time should be used well.
About the Author
Abdirahman Mohamed Abdiwahid is Head of Communication and Public Relations at the Ministry of Environment and Climate Change, Federal Government of Somalia.
The views expressed in this article are the author’s own and do not necessarily reflect those of Dawan Africa.