By Dawan Africa - -
In a striking opinion article published by Jerusalem Post, writer Habtom Ghebrezghiabher offers a sharp critique of Israel’s decision to recognize Somaliland as an independent state, describing the move as a strategic error whose risks far outweigh any conceivable gains.
Rather than promoting stability or advancing Israel’s interests in the Horn of Africa and the Red Sea, the author argues, the decision is likely to deepen internal divisions within Somaliland, inflame regional tensions, hand propaganda victories to extremist groups, and further isolate Israel diplomatically.
The article begins by acknowledging that Somaliland’s long-standing quest for international recognition is understandable, given its relative stability over the past three decades compared with the rest of Somalia. Yet this context, the author insists, does not justify Israel’s rush to recognition. On the contrary, he contends that “any strategic gains for Israel are dwarfed by the risks,” warning that the move may ultimately harm both Somaliland and Israel.
From a principled standpoint, the author concedes that Somaliland has moral and political arguments in its favor. Its population has generally enjoyed better security and governance than much of Somalia, and the post-colonial state system in the region has often failed to deliver security, employment, or political legitimacy.
However, the article stresses that timing and agency matter. Recognition by Israel—rather than by a broad international consensus—turns what could have been a step toward stability into a destabilizing factor. As the author succinctly puts it:
“Israel’s recognition does not strengthen Somaliland; it increases its vulnerability.”
A central theme of the article is the decisive role of clan dynamics in Somaliland’s political reality. While Somaliland has projected an image of unity and democratic exceptionality, the internal landscape is far more complex. The Isaaq clan dominates major urban centers such as Hargeisa, Berbera, and Burao, but large areas in the east—particularly Sool and Sanaag—remain loyal to Somalia’s federal government. These regions are home mainly to the Dhulbahante and other Darod sub-clans, and they have been the site of recurring conflict.
The author highlights a turning point that further weakened Somaliland’s position: the Somali federal government’s recognition of SSC-Khaatumo (then South East State) as a federal member state, a move that effectively reduced Somaliland’s territorial control to roughly 45% of the former British Somaliland. In this context, the article warns that Israeli recognition is more likely to ignite new conflicts in contested المناطق than to consolidate Somaliland’s claim to statehood.
“Recognition,” the author notes, “will inflame disputes rather than resolve them.”
The risks are not confined to eastern Somaliland. In the northwest, the Dir clan—particularly the Issa—concentrated in Awdal and Borama, maintains strong ties with Djibouti and has often resisted Hargeisa’s authority. According to the article, Israel’s move is likely to harden this resistance, especially as regional and global actors become more involved. Turkey, China, and Djibouti each have their own stakes, and Beijing, in particular, strongly opposes Somaliland’s ties with Taiwan, viewing them as a challenge to the One-China Principle.
“These dynamics,” the author cautions, “threaten Somaliland’s unity and central authority.”
One of the most serious consequences identified in the article is the security fallout. Israel’s recognition, the author argues, hands Al-Shabab a powerful propaganda tool. By framing the move as “Zionist interference” and a betrayal of the Palestinian cause, the group can tap into strong anti-Israel sentiment among Somali nationalists and Islamists, including within the Isaaq clan itself.
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“Anti-Israel sentiment,” the author writes, “is the easiest path for Islamist militias to gain legitimacy.”
This propaganda advantage could strengthen Al-Shabab’s ties with regional actors such as the Houthis and Iran, and even intersect with broader regional rivalries involving Eritrea and the Gulf states. In this sense, the article suggests, Israel’s decision may inadvertently exacerbate the very security threats it seeks to counter.
From Israel’s strategic perspective, the author dismantles the assumption that recognizing Somaliland would help counter the Houthis or secure the Red Sea. He argues that this reflects a fundamental misunderstanding of the threat.
“Defeating the Houthis requires ground campaigns by partners with cohesive national armies,” he notes, “not naval bases or airstrikes.”
Somaliland, in his assessment, lacks the military capacity and political cohesion to play such a role, rendering any Israeli presence largely symbolic and strategically ineffective.
The article also challenges the notion that the move advances the Abraham Accords. Key Arab states—most notably Saudi Arabia—continue to condition normalization with Israel on a credible pathway to Palestinian statehood. The United States, despite calls from some lawmakers, has also declined to recognize Somaliland. As the author concludes:
“Recognition of Somaliland does little, if anything, to extend the Abraham Accords.”
Diplomatically, the backlash has been swift and broad. The African Union, the Arab League, and the Gulf Cooperation Council have all opposed the move, while China and the European Union have reaffirmed support for Somalia’s territorial integrity. For many African states facing their own separatist challenges, the precedent is deeply troubling. The result, the article argues, is greater diplomatic isolation for Israel rather than enhanced influence.
The article concludes with a stark assessment: Israel’s recognition of Somaliland serves neither party’s interests. While Somaliland’s desire for recognition is legitimate, the chosen path deepens internal fractures, heightens regional tensions, and strengthens extremist narratives. For Israel, the move delivers no meaningful security benefits in the Red Sea and instead exposes it to diplomatic and strategic costs. In the author’s final words:
“It is a decision that reveals risks rather than opportunities—and leaves both Somaliland and Israel more exposed than before.”
The Israeli recognition of Somaliland has triggered an intensifying debate among Somalis and across the wider region, drawing strong condemnation from regional organizations and dozens of Arab, African, and Muslim countries, as the fallout from the decision continues to unfold.