By Zamzam Osman - Reporter
East Africa (Dawan Africa) 7 April 2026 The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has warned that economies in East Africa remain highly vulnerable to the economic fallout of the Middle East war, as rising energy prices and disrupted trade flows begin to filter into the region.
The Fund said energy-importing economies, including many in East Africa, are among the most exposed, facing higher import bills and pressure on foreign exchange reserves as global fuel prices rise.
Countries dependent on external supply chains are also experiencing growing logistical challenges, with rerouted shipping increasing freight and insurance costs and delaying deliveries.
The IMF noted that disruptions to fertilizer shipments—much of which transits through Gulf routes—could affect agricultural production, raising the risk of higher food prices and food insecurity in the region.
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In addition, East African economies with strong trade and remittance links to Gulf countries may face reduced inflows, weaker demand for services exports, and tightening liquidity conditions.
These combined pressures are expected to fuel inflation, slow economic growth, and increase the cost of living, particularly in low-income populations where food accounts for a large share of household spending.
The IMF said the impact of the shock will depend on the duration and intensity of the conflict, warning that prolonged disruptions could deepen structural vulnerabilities across East Africa’s economies.