Global Lenders Warn Iran Conflict Will Push Food Prices Higher

Kenya, April 9, 2026 - Global financial institutions are raising fresh alarm over rising food prices, warning that the ongoing conflict involving Iran is no longer just an energy crisis, but a growing food security threat.

In a joint warning, the International Monetary Fund (IMF), World Bank and the World Food Programme said the war is already pushing up the cost of oil, natural gas and fertilizer, key inputs that directly influence global food prices. 

At the centre of the warning is a simple but powerful chain reaction. When oil prices rise, transport becomes more expensive, fertiliser production costs increase and food production and distribution costs go up

That chain is now playing out globally.

Since the conflict escalated, food prices have already begun rising, with the global food price index increasing by about 2.4% in March, driven largely by higher energy costs. 

Staples such as vegetable oils, sugar and grains are among the most affected, as they rely heavily on both fertiliser and transport.

One of the less visible, but critical, impacts of the war is on fertiliser supply.

The Strait of Hormuz, a key route not just for oil but also for fertiliser exports, has faced disruptions, affecting nearly a third of global fertiliser trade.

As a result, fertiliser prices are rising, just as farmers in many parts of the world enter planting seasons. 

This creates a delayed effect:

Higher fertiliser costs today, lower yields tomorrow, higher food prices later

Beyond inputs, the war is also disrupting global logistics.

Key shipping routes have been affected, forcing cargo, including food and humanitarian supplies, to take longer and more expensive routes. 

At the same time, higher fuel costs are increasing the price of moving goods from farms to markets.