Kenya, April 9, 2026 - Global financial institutions are raising fresh alarm over rising food prices, warning that the ongoing conflict involving Iran is no longer just an energy crisis, but a growing food security threat.
In a joint warning, the International Monetary Fund (IMF), World Bank and the World Food Programme said the war is already pushing up the cost of oil, natural gas and fertilizer, key inputs that directly influence global food prices.
At the centre of the warning is a simple but powerful chain reaction. When oil prices rise, transport becomes more expensive, fertiliser production costs increase and food production and distribution costs go up
That chain is now playing out globally.
Since the conflict escalated, food prices have already begun rising, with the global food price index increasing by about 2.4% in March, driven largely by higher energy costs.
Staples such as vegetable oils, sugar and grains are among the most affected, as they rely heavily on both fertiliser and transport.
One of the less visible, but critical, impacts of the war is on fertiliser supply.
The Strait of Hormuz, a key route not just for oil but also for fertiliser exports, has faced disruptions, affecting nearly a third of global fertiliser trade.
As a result, fertiliser prices are rising, just as farmers in many parts of the world enter planting seasons.
This creates a delayed effect:
Higher fertiliser costs today, lower yields tomorrow, higher food prices later
Beyond inputs, the war is also disrupting global logistics.
Key shipping routes have been affected, forcing cargo, including food and humanitarian supplies, to take longer and more expensive routes.
At the same time, higher fuel costs are increasing the price of moving goods from farms to markets.
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This is why economists warn that even if oil prices stabilise, food prices may continue rising in the months ahead.
Global lenders say the impact will not be evenly felt.
Low-income and import-dependent countries are expected to bear the brunt, as they:,rely heavily on imported food, have limited fiscal space to subsidise prices and are already dealing with debt and currency pressures
For countries like Kenya, the risks are particularly acute.
Higher global food prices could: push up inflation, increase the cost of living, strain household incomes and worsen food insecurity in vulnerable regions
The World Food Programme has already warned that millions more people could face acute hunger if the conflict persists into the coming months.
This raises the stakes beyond economics, into humanitarian territory. Food is not just another commodity. It is a basic necessity.
What began as a geopolitical and energy crisis is now evolving into a broader economic shock., rising oil prices are feeding into inflation, inflation is feeding into food prices, and food prices are feeding into global instability.
This pattern is familiar, and dangerous.
Global lenders are sending a clear message: The Iran war is no longer just about oil, it is about the cost of living worldwide.
And if the conflict drags on, the next phase of the crisis may not be felt at the fuel pump, but at the dinner table.

