By Hassan Wekesa - Editor
Kenya, 13 September 2026 - El Niño can be described as a condition resulting from changes in climatic patterns that pave the way for extremely heavy rainfall.
This has exacerbating effects such as mudslides and the destruction of infrastructure and livelihoods, affecting lives, health, agriculture and the economy.
What is the easiest definition of El Niño?
Anyone who wants to understand what it is must first understand that there are two terms: El Niño and La Niña.
They refer to different phases of pressure in different parts of the world. Simply put, El Niño and La Niña are opposite phases of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) climate pattern, representing the warm and cool phases of sea surface temperatures in the equatorial Pacific Ocean.
When this condition occurs in Pacific regions, ocean water is hotter than normal, leading to evaporation, cloud formation and heavy rainfall in some parts of East Africa and South America, while other parts of the world experience drought. That is El Niño.
La Niña, on the other hand, occurs when Pacific Ocean waters are colder than normal and in most cases causes drought and a lack of rain in the East African region.
In short, both these conditions emerge from the Pacific, but their effects are felt elsewhere in the world.
The annual Conference of the Parties (COP conferences) have for years been used as platforms where experts and all important stakeholders convene to come up with clear strategies, protocols and declarations to tackle climate extremes and protect the world against global warming and pollution, among other threats, in joint efforts to save the planet. The COP summits are organised under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). The upcoming summit, COP31, is scheduled to take place from 9–20 November 2026 in Antalya, Turkey, with a focus on post-2020 climate finance and transitioning away from fossil fuels.
Africa and most other developing countries suffer the most from these weather extremes caused by pollutants mainly from industrialised nations, further widening the imbalance.
Geographically, countries in the tropics are the ones that will be hardest hit by the forecast El Niño expected in October.
Scientific evidence tabled during COP conferences reveals that Africa is by all means a minor polluter of the environment. The single primary gas responsible for global warming is carbon dioxide (CO₂).
As countries prepare to ensure no lives are lost during the expected El Niño, there is a need for both the public and private sectors to collaborate by:
- clearing clogged wastewater tunnels and ensuring proper management of garbage;
- setting up alarms, apps and other communication methods to alert citizens;
- ensuring collaboration among regional disaster management agencies; and
- providing proper safe evacuation centres with adequate facilities and services. These include government offices, police camps, Red Cross and Red Crescent services, schools, hotels and clean water, among many other necessities.
As part of El Niño preparedness, Kenya’s Ministry of Health is aware that waterborne diseases are likely to rise in the wake of expected heavy rainfall.
It has urged families to drink safe water that has been boiled and treated. It has also urged families to store water safely in clean, covered containers.
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People have been urged to wash their hands, preferably with soap and safe water, before handling food and after using the toilet.
Families have been urged to keep food safe, ensure they cook food thoroughly, eat it while still warm and cover it to avoid contamination and food poisoning.
The Ministry further urges people to use safe sanitation, ensure children’s faecal waste is safely disposed of and report sewage leaks.
Aware that children can be playful and display innocence even under flooding conditions, the Ministry of Health has advised families to protect children and keep them away from floodwater.
Warnings from the Kenya Meteorological Department signal that there will be enhanced rainfall during the October-November-December (OND) season as El Niño conditions strengthen in the region.
Ecocide
Ecocide, just like genocide, causes suffering and is a threat to human existence. Ecocide means the mass destruction or “killing” of the natural environment.
The Financial Times noted that protecting nature is not charity, it is survival. While ecocide is not officially recognised, global campaigns are actively pushing to make it one, just like war crimes that are prosecuted at the International Criminal Court (ICC).
Experts say that it has been difficult to recognise ecocide as a crime against humanity because, according to Article 8(2)(b)(iv) of the Rome Statute, severe environmental damage is only considered a war crime during active conflict, and the legal threshold is very high.
When pollutants from industrialised nations are emitted into the Earth’s atmosphere, they mix with the air and their effects can be felt not immediately, or even after a year or two, but after a period of 10, 20 or even 30 years.
To counter global warming and pollution, countries have only agreed that support to developing countries should be voluntary.
The U.S. pulled out of the Paris Accord and its support for efforts to tackle pollution globally has reduced significantly.
The UK, on the other hand, being one of the biggest beneficiaries of industrialisation, contributes, but it cannot match countries such as Japan that are very much committed to supporting countries in the global South.