The Rise of Oburu Oginga and ODM’s Strategic Shift Toward Ruto in 2027 Building Up

Kenya 19 October 2025 - As Kenya bids farewell to one of its most iconic political figures, Raila Odinga, the Orange Democratic Movement (ODM) de-facto leader, the party finds itself at a historical and strategic crossroads.

At the heart of this moment is the emergence of Dr Oburu Oginga, who is the Siaya Senator, and Odinga’s elder brother.

He has been tasked with the responsibility of trying to fit into his brother's shoes.

He takes over as the ODM's Acting Party Leader at the time there are major realignments of ODM’s future political direction, signaling a seismic shift in Kenya’s opposition landscape.

During the solemn state funeral at Nyayo Stadium, Dr Oginga made a heartfelt declaration that he had accepted the nomination as ODM's acting party leader.

With tears in his eyes and the weight of history on his shoulders, he told mourners, “I will try my best. I know it's a tough calling. I may not fit in [Raila] Odinga's shoes, but I will try. All I need is your unwavering support.”

Oginga’s words were both humble and revealing. The legacy of Odinga, who, for over two decades, led ODM as Kenya's premier opposition figure, looms large.

But in a carefully choreographed moment of transition, Oginga’s ascension is not just a symbolic family continuation, but a deliberate political calculation.

Wandayi: No ODM Presidential Candidate in 2027

Major signals of this new strategy came from Energy and Petroleum Cabinet Secretary Opiyo Wandayi.

In a public statement that stunned political observers, CS Wandayi categorically ruled out ODM fielding a presidential candidate in the 2027 general election.

Instead, he pledged loyalty to President William Ruto.

“As ODM, Baba has left us in the hands of President Ruto. Many people echo this. That's where we shall stay till the end...We shall stick with him in 2027 and beyond because as a community we are safe in his hands.”

CS Wandayi also endorsed Dr Oginga as the rightful apparent heir to Odinga’s political legacy, describing him as having the “experience, necessary skills, and composure” to lead ODM through this new chapter.

He further proposed that ODM should immediately convene a National Delegates Convention after Odinga’s burial to formally confirm Oginga as the Party Leader.

This unprecedented embrace of President Ruto marks a significant ideological shift for ODM.

Once the embodiment of resistance politics, the party now appears to be positioning itself within the broader framework of Ruto’s Kenya Kwanza administration.

Mr Wandayi explicitly stated that ODM would work “step by step” with the president, rejecting any notion of a competitive stance in the next election cycle.

This realignment could spell the end of the opposition as it has existed for the last two decades.

ODM's implicit withdrawal from the 2027 race could serve several strategic purposes, including securing regional development for the Luo community, avoiding further political fragmentation, and ensuring a peaceful transition of leadership within the party.

As the nation prepares for Odinga’s final send-off in Bondo today Sunday, his widow Ida Odinga, Mr Wandayi, and other Luo leaders, including Siaya Governor James Orengo, called on the community to exhibit unity and hospitality.

“The cameras will be pitched here in Bondo,” Mr Wandayi said, urging locals to be mindful of their conduct as guests from across the continent arrive.

Governor Orengo echoed similar sentiments, emphasizing the global attention on the funeral and the importance of maintaining dignity and order.

"[Raila] Odinga’s guests go beyond Africa," Governor Orengo said, referring to the high-level dignitaries expected to attend.

What Next for ODM?

In the meantime, leaders in the party, have called for calm, patience, tolerance, respect, and humility as the new development spawned by the sudden demise of the party leader takes shape, pre-empting good and that all will emerge successful in the end.

The coming days will be crucial in defining ODM’s future.

While Oginga’s nomination has received backing from key party figures, questions remain about how the grassroots will respond to a leadership transition that keeps power within the Odinga family.

Furthermore, the decision not to contest the presidency could alienate sections of ODM’s traditional support base, who may view this as capitulation rather than strategy.

Still, for now, the message from ODM’s top brass is clear - unity under Oginga, alignment with Dr Ruto, and a pause, perhaps temporary, in presidential ambition.

Odinga's passing marks the end of an era, not just for ODM, but for Kenyan politics. What is emerging in its place is a recalibrated political formation—one that appears more pragmatic, more conciliatory, and more focused on survival in a shifting political climate.

Whether this will cement ODM’s legacy or dilute its identity remains to be seen.

But one thing is certain. The post-Odinga era has officially begun, and it is already reshaping the political map of Kenya.