By Bakar Osman - Reporter
MOGADISHU, 7 October 2026 Southern Somalia continues to face a serious food security crisis, with a credible risk of Famine between October 2026 and January 2027, FEWS NET has warned.
FEWS NET is a food security early warning network that monitors hunger, drought, flooding, markets and other factors affecting access to food.
In its latest assessment, the network said parts of Bay, Bakool and Hiiraan are expected to remain in IPC Phase 4, known as Emergency. IPC is an international system used to classify levels of food insecurity.
IPC Phase 4 means households face severe food shortages and are forced to adopt damaging coping strategies to meet basic food needs. Some households are already facing IPC Phase 5, known as Catastrophe, where families face an extreme lack of food and are unable to meet basic consumption needs without emergency assistance.
FEWS NET warned that if extreme and widespread flooding occurs during the Deyr season, between October and December, the situation could deteriorate further and increase the risk of Famine. Famine represents the most severe level of food insecurity and involves extreme food deprivation, severe malnutrition and increased mortality.
Flooding could destroy crops, displace communities and cut off access to markets and lifesaving services, the network said. The crisis is particularly serious in areas where people depend heavily on agriculture and livestock.
Parts of Bay, Bakool and Hiiraan are home to agropastoral communities, which depend on both farming and livestock for food and income. The Juba and Shabelle riverine areas are also facing serious pressure, with crops affected by prolonged Xagaa rainfall and flooding.
Despite these challenges, Somalia’s 2026 Gu harvest performed better overall than the previous year. Data from the Food Security and Nutrition Analysis Unit, FSNAU, and its partners estimates that 2026 Gu main and off-season crop production was 18 percent higher than in 2025 and 32 percent above the long-term average.
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However, production remains uneven across the country. Xagaa rainfall supported late-planted crops and irrigation in some areas, but also disrupted crop drying, threshing and transportation, increasing post-harvest losses, particularly for sesame.
Food prices remain another major concern. In Qoryoley, the price of white maize fell by nearly 12 percent in August compared with the previous month. Despite the decline, the price remained 88 percent higher than a year earlier. In Baidoa, red sorghum prices fell by 19 percent month-on-month, but remained 68 percent higher than last year.
Rising fuel and transportation costs are adding further pressure on households. Diesel prices in Mogadishu increased by 34 percent between July and August. FEWS NET said insecurity in the Red Sea and increasing piracy along Somalia’s coast could further raise shipping, transport and import costs. Higher transportation costs are expected to gradually push food prices higher in local markets.
Major settlements for internally displaced people, or IDPs, are also facing worsening conditions. IDPs are people who have been forced to leave their homes but remain within their own country because of conflict, flooding, drought or other emergencies.
FEWS NET expects major IDP settlements across southern and central Somalia to remain in IPC Phase 3, known as Crisis, or deteriorate into IPC Phase 4, Emergency. Many displaced families have already exhausted their ability to cope with the crisis. Some are being forced to rely on begging, borrowing money, selling livestock or seeking support from relatives.
Humanitarian food assistance is also expected to decline significantly in the coming months. FEWS NET estimates that an average of about 125,000 people per month will receive food assistance between September and November. The main areas receiving assistance include Lower Juba, Gedo, Hiiraan, Bari and Sanaag.
Meanwhile, farmers are preparing for the Deyr cropping season. The coming months will be critical for food security across Somalia. Moderate rainfall with limited flooding could support agricultural recovery in some areas. But widespread flooding could destroy crops, displace more communities and cut off access to markets and essential services.
FEWS NET therefore continues to warn of a credible risk of Famine in southern Somalia, with the outlook through January 2027 depending heavily on rainfall, flooding, food prices, humanitarian assistance and household access to food.